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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Finally, A Few Shorts

I’m adding 5 shorts to the list, against 3 buys.

Swing trade stock screens produced 106 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 80 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a significant number on both sides. Most were whipsaw signals. But I did see a few nice setups on both sides when I reviewed the screen output. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Two shorts hit stops last week. I’m closing out one of the buys based on the opening price this morning. After these changes, there will now be 27 active picks on the list, 22 buys, and 5 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good rebound week for us after a bad start in the first week of the month.. Picks closed out last week, or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 3.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on just a few of the picks. The rest I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Young Bull Growing Stronger

I keep looking for meaningful signs of weakness, but it’s like grasping at straws. Even Friday’s downtick didn’t change that. This report shows exactly why I say that and gives some keys to look for as signs that change is a comin’.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

July Starts Ugly After Fabulous June

It’s early yet. Start badly, end up goodly, right?

Swing trade stock screens produced 137 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 115 charts with a second sell signal. The big numbers on both sides were mostly due to whipsaw signals as stocks traded back and forth within tight ranges. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On reviewing the charts, I saw nothing interesting on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I liked 7 charts on the buy side, after reviewing only two-thirds of that list. At that point, I stopped because I want to hold the list to a manageable size. Most of the buys were in oil services. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There will now be 22 active picks on the list, 20 buys and 2 shorts. July has gotten off to a poor start, Picks closed out last week, or currently, open show an average theoretical loss of 1.4% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on many of the picks. Others I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification with small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling

The 10-12 month cycle projection now points at xxxx. There are hints of the expected 6-month and 13-week cycle tops getting started, but nothing definitive. The low end of the 13-week cycle projection has been hit. The upper projection range of xxxx is still possible. Prices need to break to confirm a top. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Here are the keys to triggering a turn, and the outlook for what kind of turn it will be.    Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

June Was Stellar but Whiplash Injury Hurt

Swing trade stock screens produced 208 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 24 charts with a second sell signal. The prior week’s plurality of sell signals whipsawed bigly! With that many charts to review on the buy side, I didn’t get through all of them. But even while only looking at around two thirds of the 208, I still found 7 that I liked enough to add to the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I refrained from adding any sells. The whiplash injury to my neck from the previous week prevented me from putting any more shorts on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Average swing trade chart pick theoretical profit slipped from 9.7% to 6.7% last week, on an average holding period of 25 calendar days. Some profits were culled, with 7 picks closed out, as shown on the table below. On all trades closed out in June, the average profit per theoretical trade was 5.9% on an average holding period of 33 calendar days. That assumes all cash purchase and sale, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are now 21 active picks on the list, 15 buys and 6 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on many of the picks. Others I have left without stops because the trends are good and I don’t want to get picked off early, so I will let those ride. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Growing Stronger Every Day

Cycle indications say that the market “should” top out imminently. But what if the rally continues this week. Then we’re probably looking at a blowoff move to xsxx-xxxx, with the potential to reach xxxx in August.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles-  The 10-12 month cycle projection is now xxxx. The 6 month and 13 week cycles have yet to show evidence of the expected tops in this time window. However, the 13 week cycle projection has been hit, and the low end of the 6 month cycle projected range has been reached. Upside from here looks limited to not more than x-x%. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If the market ends July above xxxx, it would then be in the clear for a move to xxxx in August. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

It’s Only an Intermediate Top

There were several signs of an important top last week, but it’s too early to say whether it will result in a correction or another benign consolidation on the way higher. The best chance for some real weakness is over the next 2 weeks. If it doesn’t materialize, then here’s what will come next.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Picks – First Time in Months, More New Shorts Than Buys

Swing trade stock screens produced 40 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 61 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a switch from prior weeks when there were far more buy than sell signals. But the numbers are small on both sides, suggesting a lack of breadth, momentum, and conviction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Average swing trade chart pick theoretical profit slipped from 10.8% to 9.7% last week, on an average holding period of 28 calendar days. Some profits were culled, with 6 picks closed out, as shown on the table below. 3 of the 4 new picks were losers, hurting performance, but I want to give them time to back and fill, as is normal before moves take hold. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts with signals, I added two buys to the list. One was a chart that made the list in early June, but went down and picked off a stop I placed last week. It then recovered and triggered new buy signals. I still like the chart. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I found 6 setups I liked on the sell side and added those to the list as shorts. This is a shift from the recent pattern of adding almost entirely buys, and few or no sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

These moves, along with the new additions will leave 14 buys and 7 shorts on the list over the coming week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10%, as it did for a couple of weeks this month. While many charts are extended, and a few have started to pull back from or near resistance levels, I’m not seeing signs of a significant reversal here yet. However, a pause or consolidation looks likely. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on many of the picks. Others I have left without stops because the trends are good and I don’t want to get picked off early, so I will let those ride. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

We Have Met the Resistance

The market has reached the upper limit of its intermediate uptrend channels, and the rally is aging. But there are signs that there’s still more upside to go before this thing ultimately rolls over. This report tells you where and when we should be looking to get out of our longs. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Picks – Adding Late Cycle Buys

Swing trade stock screens produced 121 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 42 charts with a second sell signal. That’s roughly the same ratio as the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Average swing trade chart pick theoretical profit rose to 10.8% last week, on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. Whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10% over the past 18 months, the market has subsequently reversed. While many charts are extended, and/or at or near resistance levels, I’m not seeing signs of reversal here yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’m adding four late cycle buy signals to the list. Picking up laggards is risky when a rally is this far along but I liked these charts enough to add them to the list. There were more that I could have added and didn’t because the list is already so loaded. Those that I did add were the best looking ones. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Five picks hit stops last week and will no longer appear on the list. I am pulling two stocks from the list as of today’s opening price. I have adjusted stops on others. These moves, along with the new additions will leave 16 buys and one short on the list over the coming week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!