Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Average swing trade list theoretical profit rose above 10% last week, on an average holding period of 3 weeks. It would have been even greater had I not added 3 shorts last week. That was at least premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Swing trade stock screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 51 charts with a second sell signal. Signals tilted more to the buy side than in previous weeks, suggesting a modest broadening of the rally. However, whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10% over the past 18 months, the market has subsequently reversed. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of that, and given the duration of the rally already, I am reluctant to add more longs now. There were a number of setups that looked pretty good, mostly in the energy sector, along with a few REITs, about which I’m skeptical. But with so many longs already, I’ll ride with those and start adding stops for profit taking purposes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I looked hard at the sells. Most of them were fixed income and gold ETFs. Among the few common stocks that had sell signals, the setups were not good for shorting. Nor do I like the looks of the 3 shorts already on the list, so I added or adjusted stops to those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Swing trade stock screens produced 102 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 116 charts with a second sell signal.  That’s a virtual tie. Lot’s of signals on both sides, but a preponderance were in the context of rangebound noise, and therefore meaningless. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week wasn’t bad performance wise. Including two stopouts and 16 picks still open, the average gain was 5.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days, or less than 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list had only one active short. The rest were buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts. I only added 2 picks on the buy side, and 3 shorts. If I had gone through all of the charts, there probably would have been a few more of each, but the list is big enough, so I stopped. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Swing trade stock screens produced 50 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Four of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 46. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 172 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a lot of sell signals, and only one of them was an inverse ETF. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Should we be excited? Given that rangebound markets have a propensity to generate constant whipsaws, I would still take these numbers with a grain of salt. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The goal is to keep from being chewed up in the meat grinder. Lately I’ve managed to do that successfully, but at the same time, the gains have been insignificant. Last week the average gain was 2.7% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. Six picks were closed out by either deciding to close on the open last Thursday, or by hitting stops. These are shown on the table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

After 3 of the shorts were closed out, that left one active short and 14 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts but I looked at most of them, including all 50 buys. The theme again was tech, tech, tech, particularly semiconductors. I added 4 buys to the list, bringing the total of open picks to 18 buys and one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I reviewed about 100 of the sells. They were mostly signals in the context of rangebound noise with ambiguous setups. Many of the signals were in health care, real estate, and other interest sensitive sectors. But I saw no setups that were compelling enough to add to the list. There was too much ambiguity in the charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Swing trade stock screens produced 57 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Five of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 52. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 95 charts with a second sell signal. Of those 95 sells, 22 were fixed income ETFs and 19 were foreign market ETFs. Only 54 were individual stocks, and a few of those were foreign stocks. More were interest sensitive utilities. So investors seem to dislike anything related to fixed income. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall there was no significant tilt to the signals on individual US stocks that are not directly tied to the fixed income outlook. Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you are interested in precious metals, a number of gold stocks and ETFs showed up on the sell side. I will update the Precious Metals Trader report on Friday morning. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/8/23 Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes.

That said, I have continued to review and select charts that appeared set up for a decent move in either direction, and I’ve been giving them a bit more rope, eschewing stops until the third or fourth week after the pick was made. That has resulted in the current active list having an average gain of 2% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. It’s nothing to write home about, but given the market’s tight trading range and constant whipsaws, I’ll take it. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list will have 12 open picks after closing out two shorts as of the open this morning. Of the 12 remaining open, just two are shorts, and 10 are longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I added 6 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. I didn’t like any of the setups on the sell side, so added nothing there. The list will be lopsidedly long, which is risky, but it is what it is. I try to review the charts without bias. If I have a bias, it’s to the short side, and I still didn’t see anything I liked in that direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks are shown on the table below (subscriber report). I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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There were 87 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past two weeks. There were 55 with a second sell signal. But get this. Of those 55 sells, 30 were fixed income ETFs. Do you think that’s a sign? Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I do not. These income ETFs have been tightly rangebound in a flat range for months, with constant whipsaws. So it’s difficult to conclude that this is the big one. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall, I want to caution again that with the market racing back and forth in a range, it has been months since the system has produced a string of winners. Therefore, I would not rely on these numbers as a market signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I was surprised to find several buy setups that looked decent. I didn’t like any of the shorts. I added 7 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

My sentimental long pick in the last report was the second best performer. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 7 new buys, the list will have 11 longs and 4 shorts. The new picks are shown on the table below. I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans