Futures in the pre-market signal an end to the crash. Here’s what’s needed to maintain that and a few trade suggestions to take advantage.
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Massive Fed intervention turned the market, although cyclicality was favorable. The 6 month cycle low was overdue. But is it something more than that?
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This market is a different breed of cat. Cycles have little or no influence. This is a fundamental collapse of liquidity. Traditional technical analysis is more useful. In that regard, the conventional measured move implication of the breakdown below the December 2018 low is 1350. Other techniques point to that area.
I’ve added a few new shorts to our trades list this week. Our initial pick now has a gain of 32.6% since entry on March 3, using no leverage. Short sale margin is 50%. You can do the math.
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The SPX has broken out of its original crash channel to the downside. It’s in a new channel with a slope of -46 points per day. Long term signals are already extremely negative, and are on the verge of turning catastrophic, cataclysmic, and apocalyptic.
I’ve run out of adjectives.
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The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.
I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.
The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.
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The ferocity of the surprise attack has been breathtaking, and deeply troubling, but here’s why the ingredients for a short term low are in place.
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This is a special bulletin for Technical Trader subscribers.
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And there’s no reason to conclude that the uptrend is broken…
Yet.
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The overnight market got hit with more Coronabear virus worries. It gave the dealers another opportunity to load up their long inventories. You know what happens next.
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The market held at support and immediately rebounded to the top of the trading range and a bit more last week. But trend resistance lines around 3350 were not violated. A failure to penetrate that area would leave the market vulnerable to a decline back to the bottom of the range around 3215.
I have suggested a trade that would profit hugely from that scenario, if it plays out, of course.
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Lee Adler