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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

The Fed Has Won the Battle

Lee Adler

Massive Fed intervention has once again tilted the long term playing field. Evidence is increasing that we will not see the March low materially exceeded in nominal terms. This may have little meaning in terms of the future purchasing power of a dollar, but at least nominally the worst seems over. The Fed has won this round and is, for now, again in control of the stock market.

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The Illusion of a Stock Market

Lee Adler

Short term cycles are due for tops and little pullbacks at least. If it doesn’t happen, it would be another sign that the long term cycles are back in up phases. But are these cycles, or just the manifestation of the power of the Fed to create the illusion of a market?

How do you trade it? With one eye on the ground and the other to the sky. Walk this way.

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What’s the Context, Bear or Bull?

Lee Adler

What happens this week could tell us whether we’re in a bull or bear market.

As of 4:15 AM ET on Monday, virtually all of Thursday’s market gain has been wiped out. The S&P futures were trading at 2742, which would put the S&P cash index back below the centerline of the trend channel. Bears would have a foothold, but it’s where Monday finishes that matters, not where it starts.

Here are the critical parameters and levels you need to know to be positioned correctly.

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Rebound! How to Trade It

Lee Adler

Futures in the pre-market signal an end to the crash. Here’s what’s needed to maintain that and a few trade suggestions to take advantage.

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Was That A 4 Year Cycle Low?

Lee Adler

Massive Fed intervention turned the market, although cyclicality was favorable. The 6 month cycle low was overdue. But is it something more than that?

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Here are More Short Chart Picks as New Projection Points to 1300

Lee Adler

This market is a different breed of cat. Cycles have little or no influence. This is a fundamental collapse of liquidity. Traditional technical analysis is more useful. In that regard, the conventional measured move implication of the breakdown below the December 2018 low is 1350. Other techniques point to that area.

I’ve added a few new shorts to our trades list this week. Our initial pick now has a gain of 32.6% since entry on March 3, using no leverage.  Short sale margin is 50%. You can do the math.

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Crash Channels Remain Intact, Long Term Signs Get Worse

Lee Adler

The SPX has broken out of its original crash channel to the downside. It’s in a new channel with a slope of -46 points per day. Long term signals are already extremely negative, and are on the verge of turning catastrophic, cataclysmic, and apocalyptic.

I’ve run out of adjectives.

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Lock Limit Down

Lee Adler

The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.

I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.

The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.

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Time For “A” Bottom

Lee Adler

The ferocity of the surprise attack has been breathtaking, and deeply troubling, but here’s why the ingredients for a short term low are in place.

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Bulletin- A Thousand Points of Light

Lee Adler

This is a special bulletin for Technical Trader subscribers.

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