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After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest

Lee Adler

The Treasury supply issue is still favorable for most of June. The Treasury has already resumed paying down T-bills thanks to a huge cash balance and the prospect of a big wave of estimated tax collections on June 15. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I now estimate that paydowns should rebuild the Fed’s RRP facility to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. That should be enough to last until xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. It doesn’t guarantee bullish markets until then, but it’s potential cash flow that will offset ongoing QT until it doesn’t. That should be xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx at the latest. So enjoy the party while it lasts. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile the stock market had looked historically overbought versus the level of bank deposits in recent weeks. But it has now blown through that record extreme into a supernova of bullishness. When that finally turns, it should mark the end of this bull run. But we’re not there yet, and there’s no reason to try and anticipate the turn by selling too early. The market will tell us. Meanwhile, I would let xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

However, the buildup of divergences between liquidity indicators and the direction of asset prices means that when the market finally does give it up, we should believe it. It will be time to sell and sell short, not just wait out the next correction. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Still Tilted Buy

Lee Adler

The latest screens resulted in 87 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus just 24 on the sell side. That compares with 79 buys and 18 sells the week before. Sells have all but disappeared, and buys are holding steady at a modest level.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just one of the preliminary sells qualified on Friday, while 11 of the buys did. That still does not signify broad thrust. I only liked 2 of the buys enough to add to the list. I did not add any sells.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

One pick hit its stop price last week. Another loser will be dropped based on today’s opening price. Dropping those and adding the 2 new ones, will leave 10 buys and 2 shorts on the list for this week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added or adjusted stops for several existing picks. New picks are added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, see table of picks and charts in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

List performance was minimally positive last week. Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average gain of 1.3 % with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. That compares with 2.3% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days, for the prior week. The change was mostly due to adding 8 new picks that started last week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed in May, it was a losing month. Picks closed out during the month had an average loss of 0.1% and an average holding period of 22 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Under the Big Top

Lee Adler

There’s plenty of room for doubt in both directions, but cycle projections say one more rally to go before a bigger top begins to form. Here’s where and when to expect the highs, and what to look for in between.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Why Gold’s Consolidation Is Probably Not Benign

Lee Adler

Gold came within 16 points of its last 9-12 month cycle projection. It now appears to have topped out and entered a flat down phase. However… Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Meanwhile, we’re  down to swinging 5 mining picks and they might be gone soon too.  Subscribers, see table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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June Swoon Called Off

Lee Adler

Fed balance sheet and banking data, along with Treasury supply data had previously shown the prospect for some stock market weakness around the enormous expected end of May Treasury coupon settlement. I warned about it in our last update of this data on May 13, which was headlined, “Why Sell in May and Go Away.”  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Last week, the Treasury confirmed the amount of the settlement that I had estimated. Over the past few days, we’ve begun to see the effects of that in stocks and bonds. But how bad will it be? This report answers that question, and shows you why.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Primary Dealers Get a Break from Impending Doom

Lee Adler

Headline Corrected

The storm warnings of extreme dealer leverage have dissipated over the past two months. For the moment, the skies are only partly cloudy with a chance of showers, but no sign of any big storms. They’re still over the horizon. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Dealers are required to buy a significant percentage of every Treasury offering by the deal they made with the devil to be its Primary Dealers. And those offerings keep coming in a never-ending tide. But they were sharply curtailed from late March through early May by the annual tax collection bulge. Those collections enable the US Treasury to pay down debt over that period. That reduction in supply accrues to the benefit of the dealers. It enabled them to not only reduce leverage, but also to add to hedges as the accumulate inventory. So over the past two months they have taken the opportunity to get a little healthier than they were through early this year. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We know from our other reports on the Fed’s balance sheet and the banking system that the time when trouble is likely is when the Fed’s RRP slush fund runs out. It’s been holding in the 400-500 billion range, but as T-bill issuance picks up it will begin to diminish. We’ll watch that data as always and will keep an eye on the dealers’ positions as the other signs of impending doom begin to appear. Right now, they’re on hold. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report shows the pictures that tell the story, and that tells us what to do about it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Plunging

Lee Adler

No, the market isn’t plunging. I’m plunging on the buy side.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance was positive last week. Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average gain of 2.3% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days. That compared with the previous week’s average gain of 1.5% with an average holding period of 17 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The latest screens resulted in 79 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus only 18 on the sell side. That compares with 74 buys and 32 sells the week before. Sells have all but disappeared, and buys are holding steady at a low level.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just one of the 11 sells qualified on Friday, while 11 of the buys did. That does not signify broad thrust, but it’s a bigger number than we have seen lately. I liked 7 of the buys enough to take flyers and add to the list. The one sell that triggered had a nice ugly chart, so I will also add that one on the sell side. I will start tracking as of Tuesday this week, with Monday having been a holiday.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Three picks hit stop prices last week. Dropping those and adding the 8 new ones, will leave 10 buys and 2 shorts on the list for this week. The 10 buys is a big number relative to the last couple of months, but consistent with the numbers in the past when the market was trending.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added or adjusted stops for several existing picks. New picks are added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts. 9 of the 11 picks closed out were profitable.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Pause That Refreshes

Lee Adler

The market is currently set up for a consolidation. But there’s a question about whether it might turn into something worse.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here Are the Projections for Gold’s Rally Highs

Lee Adler

Cycle projections suggest that the rally still has a bit more upside.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Meanwhile, we have been swinging 5 mining picks to take advantage of rising gold prices.  Subscribers, see table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Low Confidence, Limited Risk, Tilted Buy

Lee Adler

List performance was slightly positive last week, but underperformed the market. Including picks still open at the end of the week, plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average gain of 1.5% with an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This compares with the prior week’s drawdown of -0.4% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screening data lately has not kept up with the strength in the market averages, which are dominated by a few stocks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The latest screens ferreted out 74 stocks that met buy side criteria on Friday before the trigger test. That was up from 32, the week before. There were just 14 sells versus 41 the week before. While the buys had a solid edge, it was not broad strength. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying the trigger filters, none of the 14 sells hit their triggers on Friday, while 4 of the buys did. I liked two of them enough to add to the list and start tracking as of Monday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 2 new picks and an existing pick stopped out last week, that will leave 5 buys and 2 shorts on the list for this week. 7 picks remains a low number relative to the 11 to 20 that we’ve typically had in recent months. This indicates low confidence and suggests limiting exposure. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/6/24 For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts. 9 of the 11 picks close out were profitable. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added or adjusted stops for several existing picks. New picks are added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

See the table and charts in the report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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