Beware! March withholding tax collections were strong, but excise taxes were weak.
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Gold’s sharp pullback last week has created some problems for the long term outlook. Here’s a look at what they are, and what needs to happen to keep the situation from deteriorating.
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This is a make or break week for both stock market bulls and bears. Futures exploded higher in the wee hours, making it appear that the path of least resistance is up. If this sticks, it will be an intermediate term bullish confirmation. However, if it does not stick, the bears could gradually gain the upper hand. It’s only 4:30 AM NY time as I write this, and the pre market is the pre market. Let’s see where we are at 4:00PM.
Meanwhile, we have a new conditional SPY call buy recommendation. Here’s what needs to happen to trigger the trade.
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The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but bank lending for speculative purposes has soared. That is supporting financial asset price inflation. That’s dangerous. This report shows how it works, and why you should be concerned.
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Real time federal tax receipts and other real time data bely the current bullish narrative. Here’s why the Fed won’t ease policy and why the rally won’t end well.
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There’s a critical price level that gold needs to cross to signal that it will ultimately break out to the upside in a new bull market upleg. Meanwhile, I have added another mining stock pick. We now have 3 toes in the water for a move to the upside, with stops of course!
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The previous week’s “as good as it gets” played out last week, with a failed breakout through major resistance. But bears still need more to prove their case. The jury is still considering the evidence. This report shows it to you.
Meanwhile, our SPY call trade from 2 weeks ago was stopped out with a 65% profit on Wednesday. A conditional SPY put trade was triggered when the trigger condition was met with 5 minutes left in the trading day on Friday. I have updated that trade to include stop levels and an S&P price target.
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The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us about why that could be a problem. And here’s how you can protect yourself and even take advantage of the fallout.
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Gold’s technical analysis picture has a couple of cycles opposed right now. We’re watching a key level for confirmation of a bull market. We’re also sticking with a couple of mining stock picks but with protective stops added.
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OK, so it may or may not be this week after the FOMC announcement. But this report gives you a couple of cycle projection targets and a couple of keys to watch to signal whether the trend will continue or reverse.
We’re still long our suggested SPY call trade that triggered last Monday. I have raised trailing stops on that to protect the profit.
I also am suggesting a put trade for later this week if certain conditions are met. This report spells out the conditions that would trigger that trade.
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