Warning signs abound that a cataclysm lies ahead for the Treasury market. It will also infect stocks.
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Gold is on the verge of completing a massive top. Silver has broken support. But if one key support level holds, it would be a potential reversal setup with a low risk entry.
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Here’s what the market needs to do to signal a new upleg, along with a recommended option trade to take advantage if it does.
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Federal tax collection data for March showed modest economic growth but continuing wide Federal budget deficits. An uptick in nominal revenues has reduced Treasury issuance for the time being. But the revenue windfall will be counted and in the books by mid May. After that, things will change. Here’s what to expect and a recommended investment approach.
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Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.
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Gold’s launch from support is a positive sign. I have added 3 more toe-in-the-water mining picks after the last group was stopped out.
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The market is setting its sights on new highs, but there are reasons to believe that it might not make it. I have added tight trailing stops to protect the profit in last week’s SPY call purchase recommendation.
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Beware! March withholding tax collections were strong, but excise taxes were weak.
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Gold’s sharp pullback last week has created some problems for the long term outlook. Here’s a look at what they are, and what needs to happen to keep the situation from deteriorating.
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This is a make or break week for both stock market bulls and bears. Futures exploded higher in the wee hours, making it appear that the path of least resistance is up. If this sticks, it will be an intermediate term bullish confirmation. However, if it does not stick, the bears could gradually gain the upper hand. It’s only 4:30 AM NY time as I write this, and the pre market is the pre market. Let’s see where we are at 4:00PM.
Meanwhile, we have a new conditional SPY call buy recommendation. Here’s what needs to happen to trigger the trade.
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