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Under the Big Top

Lee Adler

There were lots of signs that the xxxxxxx cycle topped out last week, but nothing that will signal how weak the down phase will be. It depends on whether a couple of key support lines that are just below current levels, hold or not. This report tells you how long the down phase will last, what it means for the big picture, and the key levels that will tell us what’s next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens

Lee Adler

Market pundits worried this week about the coming massive increase in Treasury note and bond supply. There’s just one problem. It’s not true. The issuance schedule is exactly the same as first forecast in May. And T-bill supply is coming down. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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But there’s a big problem despite that. Withholding tax collections have gone flat. This is real time, actual collections data, not some retrospective, manipulated government economic statistic. So we know that the jobs data is BS. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

A deeper dive tells us that there’s no immediate reason to expect material change in stock price trends. But at the same time, conditions for change will ripen over the next couple of months. We need to be ready. This report tells you what to look for. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Gold’s Pain in the Bottom

Lee Adler

The 13-17 week cycle is topping out as the 9-12 month cycle should be bottoming. That suggests… Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Meanwhile, mining picks are getting blown out as technical buy signals fail left and right. And so we are reduced to following Newton’s law of trading. Hold ’em and hope. But not for long. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Thanks But No Thanks

Lee Adler

The screens produced 171 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 42 charts with a second sell signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week was a good week for the longs on the list and another bad week for the shorts.  Picks closed out last week or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 4.9% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. 69% of the picks show gains. 31% have losses. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. show losses. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The month of July as a whole was difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on closed picks,  thanks to the good last two weeks. 63% of the picks were winners, but the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking

Lee Adler

Dealer fixed income positions have shrunken recently. Is that because they are selling and deleveraging or is it because they must mark to market while their inventories lose value.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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It looks like the latter. Because they have been adding T-bills and taking on a massive amount of new leverage via the private repo route. It’s clear that that leverage is being put to use, and the evidence shows that it’s not going into the bond market. It’s going to stocks.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But what does it tell us about what the markets will do now? Here’s your answer.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short

Lee Adler

The cycle layout suggests that there’s only x-x% upside left in this move. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Marks Time

Lee Adler

No change from last week’s comments for the metal, The mining stocks are also quiet. I chose to sit tight with the 6 longs on the miners’ swinging picks list.  This report shows where gold and the miners are mostly likely headed next. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Full Load of Longs, But Adding 2 Shorts

Lee Adler

I’m adding 2 shorts to the list, against 0 buys. With 19 longs already on the list, and the uptrend aging, I’m reluctant to add more at this point. Consequently, I did not review the buy signal charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 78 charts with a second sell signal. We have enough buys on the list, and with the age of the uptrend, I’m more willing to look at the short term sell signals. What I saw were a lot of sell signals within uptrends. I’m not a fan of trying to pick countertrend top swing trades. Too often the pullbacks are shallow, or don’t happen at all. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Two shorts hit stops last week. I’m closing out another one based on the opening price this morning. After these changes, there will now be 25 active picks on the list of which, 19 are buys, and 7 are shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good rebound week for us after a bad start in the first week of the month.. Picks closed out last week, or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 4.1% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

However, so as not to mislead, 12 picks closed out so far in July have all been losers, in honor of cut your losses and let your profits run. I’ll do a full accounting of the month next week. For now, including open positions, the month is a hair above break even. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on just a few of the picks. The rest I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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Market Looks Poised

Lee Adler

I am on a train to Nuremberg this morning. Lots of thoughts about what happened here 8 decades ago.

Meanwhile, I see no reason yet to have major doubt about this market trend. It’s due for a breather, but looks just as due for more upside first. Here’s what to look for.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now

Lee Adler

I have been meaning for weeks to hunt for correlations in the data between bank loans to shadow banks and stock prices, and between bank repo loans to the direction of stock prices. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, right? I spent a couple of hours looking at the data every which way, and I found some occasional correlation, but other times there was none. Sometimes hunches don’t pay. It was a lot of time spent for nothing. But some time spent for something. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Where I continue to find a strong correlation is between the direction of the Fed’s RRP slush fund (down) and stock prices (up). That has been persistent over the past year. The evidence supports the idea I first put out here a couple of years ago. That is that when the RRPs would start coming down, it would be a bullish signal for stock prices. Here’s the proof, with the amount of RRPs outstanding plotted on a negative (or inverse) scale. See chart in report.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The implication here is that as long as the total RRPs are decreasing (rising on this chart), then stock prices are likely to continue rising.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So, we will continue to keep an eye on that. This week, there was an uptick in the RRPs, and stock prices started to waffle. A precursor to something? Maybe…  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

There are other signs that something big is about to happen.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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