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Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers remain moderately hedged in their bond portfolios. There’s no sign in their data that disaster is imminent, but they are also not prepared if the bond market continues to go south, as it has been for the past month. And as it is likely to when the debt ceiling is finally lifted, whether before or after default. At that point the market will be crushed with supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Originally, I was a lone voice in the wilderness warning of this eventuality, but big players have joined the chorus recently. The idea seems to be in the process of becoming conventional wisdom. Does that mean that the big players who matter are as well prepared as necessary to prevent the bond market crunch? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report gives answers and tells you what to do about it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Non Functional GPS Market

Lee Adler

Stocks continue to wander aimlessly within a very weak apparent uptrend. A breakout is not a given. Nor is a downturn. We’ll keep an eye on these technical measures for any tell on the next big move. Here’s what I’m watching, with potential cues. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold’s Immaculate Correction

Lee Adler

Gold has apparently entered a 9-12 month cycle down phase, which should remain flat. But it isn’t due to bottom until June 21 at the earliest and as late as October 21. That will be a window of both risk and opportunity. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 57 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Five of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 52. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 95 charts with a second sell signal. Of those 95 sells, 22 were fixed income ETFs and 19 were foreign market ETFs. Only 54 were individual stocks, and a few of those were foreign stocks. More were interest sensitive utilities. So investors seem to dislike anything related to fixed income. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall there was no significant tilt to the signals on individual US stocks that are not directly tied to the fixed income outlook. Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you are interested in precious metals, a number of gold stocks and ETFs showed up on the sell side. I will update the Precious Metals Trader report on Friday morning. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/8/23 Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes.

That said, I have continued to review and select charts that appeared set up for a decent move in either direction, and I’ve been giving them a bit more rope, eschewing stops until the third or fourth week after the pick was made. That has resulted in the current active list having an average gain of 2% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. It’s nothing to write home about, but given the market’s tight trading range and constant whipsaws, I’ll take it. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list will have 12 open picks after closing out two shorts as of the open this morning. Of the 12 remaining open, just two are shorts, and 10 are longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I added 6 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. I didn’t like any of the setups on the sell side, so added nothing there. The list will be lopsidedly long, which is risky, but it is what it is. I try to review the charts without bias. If I have a bias, it’s to the short side, and I still didn’t see anything I liked in that direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks are shown on the table below (subscriber report). I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

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The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History

Lee Adler

We look at the charts of the banking and Fed balance sheet data, and current tax collections, in the context of the above heading. The failure of the government to raise the debt limit will mean that the US Government will run out of cash to pay its bills within the next few weeks. The Wall Street cognoscenti, who have no sense, see that it will mean the end of the world. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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I think that AI will end the world before a US technical debt default will. No doubt, given the rabid dogs in charge of the issue in the House of Representatives, there will be a technical default. They don’t care about the consequences, predicted or otherwise, because the vast majority of them are in safe seats backed by voters who don’t care and know even less. The only thing that matters to them is to stick it to the “woke” crowd. A debt default would certainly be one way of sticking a finger in the eyes of the woke. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So my wild guess is that it will happen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But wait! There’s more. And you need to know what that is if you want to play to win. Or at least to save your skin. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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The Twilight Zone

Lee Adler

“There is a sixth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space, and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow — between man’s grasp and his reach; between science and superstition; between the pit of his fears and the sunlight of his knowledge.” – Rod Serling

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week

Lee Adler

There were 87 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past two weeks. There were 55 with a second sell signal. But get this. Of those 55 sells, 30 were fixed income ETFs. Do you think that’s a sign? Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I do not. These income ETFs have been tightly rangebound in a flat range for months, with constant whipsaws. So it’s difficult to conclude that this is the big one. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall, I want to caution again that with the market racing back and forth in a range, it has been months since the system has produced a string of winners. Therefore, I would not rely on these numbers as a market signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I was surprised to find several buy setups that looked decent. I didn’t like any of the shorts. I added 7 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

My sentimental long pick in the last report was the second best performer. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 7 new buys, the list will have 11 longs and 4 shorts. The new picks are shown on the table below. I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook

Lee Adler

The key to the longer term outlook lies in the shape of the xxxx xxxxx xxx xxxx that’s just starting.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Is on the Brink

Lee Adler

Gold’s 9-12 month cycle high is overdue. The cycle projection has xxxx to xxxx. The cycle may have shifted into trending mode, which would be consistent with the initial stage of long term cycles turning xxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections through May 2 have been much weaker than the year ago period, and weaker versus last month. This does not bode well for the budget deficit. It suggests that there could be be more Treasury supply than forecast by the TBAC. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It also suggests a very weak jobs report for April assuming that the BLS doesn’t adjust the weakness away in the various statistical tricks it applies to smooth the data. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That’s never a safe assumption, but sooner or later reality catches up with them. Last month’s report should have been weaker than it was, based on March tax collections. The BLS reported 236,000 new jobs in March. Based on withholding for March, that number should have been zero or negative. There was no improvement in April, so this should be the month where reality catches up with them. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

If it does, the R House Majority will have absolutely no incentive to reach a deal to raise the debt limit. The worse they make the Administration look, the better it will be for them politically. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, Madame Secretary has warned us that the drop dead date for the debt limit is June 1. Supposedly that’s when the Treasury will run out of money. I did a few back of the envelope calculations, and it is completely plausible that they’ll run out of cash by the end of May. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

You’ll want to see the ugly details so that you can be prepared to take the appropriate steps to protect yourself, and even profit from the situation. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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