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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let Your Profits Run

Lee Adler

Average swing trade list theoretical profit rose above 10% last week, on an average holding period of 3 weeks. It would have been even greater had I not added 3 shorts last week. That was at least premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Swing trade stock screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 51 charts with a second sell signal. Signals tilted more to the buy side than in previous weeks, suggesting a modest broadening of the rally. However, whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10% over the past 18 months, the market has subsequently reversed. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of that, and given the duration of the rally already, I am reluctant to add more longs now. There were a number of setups that looked pretty good, mostly in the energy sector, along with a few REITs, about which I’m skeptical. But with so many longs already, I’ll ride with those and start adding stops for profit taking purposes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I looked hard at the sells. Most of them were fixed income and gold ETFs. Among the few common stocks that had sell signals, the setups were not good for shorting. Nor do I like the looks of the 3 shorts already on the list, so I added or adjusted stops to those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low

Lee Adler

Gold is due for a 13 week cycle upturn. Here’s what needs to happen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now

Lee Adler

The debt ceiling issue has been settled. Investors breathed a sigh relief and bought stocks. But they did it on margin, because the cash liquidity for it sure isn’t there. So we can probably count the longevity of this rally with the fingers of our hands, and it won’t be in months. And probably not weeks either. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Of course, liquidity isn’t a timing device. It merely establishes context. And the context ain’t bullish. Animal spirits and increased leverage have a shelf life, and this one is about to run out. The timing is likely to depend on the onslaught of new Treasury supply that’s about to hit, now that the debt ceiling has gone away for a couple of years. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In the short run, anything can happen, especially when hedge funds have a record short position in Treasuries, which we have discussed elsewhere. But the liquidity context argues for the rally in stocks to end soon. Timing that is a matter for technical analysis. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report tells what to expect, why, and how. You need to know that so that you are prepared to react properly when the time is right. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

My swing trade screens for stock picks have led me to select only buys lately, until this week when I began to tentatively nibble on the short side. The liquidity picture now suggests that we start to look more closely for opportunities to go short, and to put in trailing stops on our long side trades. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As for the bond market, once the potential for a short squeeze is out of the way, it will be time to get out yet again. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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The Bulls Are Full of It

Lee Adler

And they should be. There’s just not much in the technical picture to think otherwise. Most projections and indicators point higher in the short to intermediate term, despite weakness in internal measures of the majority of stocks. If we’re trading the market averages, then we must accept that the big cap rules, and can continue to rule for the length of an era.

Meanwhile, here are the current targets and support levels to watch.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are

Lee Adler

But First, A Number

Before I get into the withholding tax data for May, the Treasury just posted the following on the heels of the signing of the debt ceiling deal. My reaction? HOLEE COWWWWW!!! Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing		 Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
06/08/2023 Bills $123,000 $101,998 $21,002
06/06/2023 Bills $164,000 $135,979 $28,021
06/05/2023 Bills $65,000 $25,000 $40,000
06/02/2023 Bills $25,000 $0 $25,000

That’s $95 billion in new supply in 6 days. And that’s only the beginning, whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa oh oh oh oh oh oh oh uh oh. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

You would think that that would leave a mark in T-bill trading, but so far at least, nothing has moved. It might be because the market was already at 5.42, which is 37 bp above the Fed’s RRP rate. Once again, the market leads, the Fed lags. The T-bills should start sucking money out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

It’s all dead money anyway until investors decide that they want to use it for something else. If it stays in the RRPs, yes it’s available to spend on stocks and bonds, but there’s a reason that $2.2 trillion or thereabouts has just sat there for the past year. And if it gets pulled out to go back into the Treasury’s cash account for rebuilding to the desired $600 billion, that cash won’t be spent in the markets, or the economy either. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That money is dead to me. It won’t be used to support stock and bond prices. As Treasury issuance explodes and the Fed continues to insanely pull $95 billion per month out of the banking system, something will break. That’s a given. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 102 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 116 charts with a second sell signal.  That’s a virtual tie. Lot’s of signals on both sides, but a preponderance were in the context of rangebound noise, and therefore meaningless. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week wasn’t bad performance wise. Including two stopouts and 16 picks still open, the average gain was 5.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days, or less than 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list had only one active short. The rest were buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts. I only added 2 picks on the buy side, and 3 shorts. If I had gone through all of the charts, there probably would have been a few more of each, but the list is big enough, so I stopped. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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That Seventies Show

Lee Adler

There are conflicting indications between the broad market averages and cycle screening measures which take the temperature of the market on a micro basis. It suggests that a new Jive Five will be like the Nifty Fifty of the late sixties and 1970s. They kept the market averages perking along while the bulk of stocks were locked in long term bear markets.

That too was an era of high inflation and slow, or no growth.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom

Lee Adler

Gold is due for a short term cycle low as soon as this week, but there’s still a 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx that remains a possibility. And the 9-12 month cycle low is ideally still at least x xxxxxx away. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’t

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 50 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Four of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 46. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 172 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a lot of sell signals, and only one of them was an inverse ETF. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Should we be excited? Given that rangebound markets have a propensity to generate constant whipsaws, I would still take these numbers with a grain of salt. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The goal is to keep from being chewed up in the meat grinder. Lately I’ve managed to do that successfully, but at the same time, the gains have been insignificant. Last week the average gain was 2.7% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. Six picks were closed out by either deciding to close on the open last Thursday, or by hitting stops. These are shown on the table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

After 3 of the shorts were closed out, that left one active short and 14 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts but I looked at most of them, including all 50 buys. The theme again was tech, tech, tech, particularly semiconductors. I added 4 buys to the list, bringing the total of open picks to 18 buys and one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I reviewed about 100 of the sells. They were mostly signals in the context of rangebound noise with ambiguous setups. Many of the signals were in health care, real estate, and other interest sensitive sectors. But I saw no setups that were compelling enough to add to the list. There was too much ambiguity in the charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers remain moderately hedged in their bond portfolios. There’s no sign in their data that disaster is imminent, but they are also not prepared if the bond market continues to go south, as it has been for the past month. And as it is likely to when the debt ceiling is finally lifted, whether before or after default. At that point the market will be crushed with supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Originally, I was a lone voice in the wilderness warning of this eventuality, but big players have joined the chorus recently. The idea seems to be in the process of becoming conventional wisdom. Does that mean that the big players who matter are as well prepared as necessary to prevent the bond market crunch? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report gives answers and tells you what to do about it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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