For the week ended March 10, there were 3 charts with multiple buy signals as of Thursday or Friday. There were 482 multiple sells. It’s like the night that Wilt scored 100 points. It only happened once.
The prior week there were 33 buys and 37 sells. The week before that, the tally was 11 buys and 113 sells. That was a big number on the sell side, suggesting a change of trend in the market. But the setups didn’t look great for entering shorts there. Or so I thought at the time.
That was the week to get short. I missed it. I compounded the mistake by choosing 3 longs last week. Needless to say, they did not do well, as tracked from the March 6 closing price. I will close them out as of today’s closing price. The list ended the week with a loss of 0.6% on an average 12 calendar day holding period.
I cannot visually review 482 charts. I am looking at as many as possible. As I look at these, the question I have is whether it is too late to go short and do we have the stomach for what are likely to be extreme moves in both directions.
We’ve been in a trading range. Trading ranges are meat grinders. Trends with 3% price moves a day are meat cleavers. Right now we have a little of both. Furthermore, there’s just too much noise. Support levels are being challenged and broken, but I have no sense that these breaks will stick. There’s too much mindless intervention, and knee jerk reaction, to have any confidence here.
That said, as I went through more than 100 charts in alphabetical order, there were a few that were ordinary, even stodgy looking, bearish setups. I am adding these to the list to short. I will start tracking these as of today’s (March 13) closing price.
The next buy round of buy signals should be scalpable. I will be on the lookout for those. I’d like to see a nice bounce that can be shorted. But the next round of good sell signals will be a cycle away. And the current round has come too late for my liking. That said, I’ll take my chances with the 4 that I’ve selected for now.
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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.
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Lee Adler