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Lots of Signals, Mostly Sells, Means Good Shorts Ahead

Lee Adler

Short term cycles have topped out and concurrent down phases are ideally due to last 2-3 weeks. With weak upward momentum in the 6 month cycAle, the potential exists for a significant downdraft. That, in turn would signal the onset of a 6 month cycle down phase. This is the best shot that bears have had for a turn in the tide since August-September.

As a result, I’m shifting my focus to be alert for more swing trade chart picks on the short side.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here’s Why Front Loaded Stimulus Will Be Catastrophic for the Market

Lee Adler

Both bonds and stocks have weakened over the past 2 weeks. It’s a sign that the Fed isn’t supplying enough QE.

We’ve known for a long time that it wasn’t enough to support twin bull moves in both asset classes. Have we reached the tipping point where it’s insufficient for either to move higher while the other descends?

The answer, my friends, is blowing in the wind—the wind of margin calls now blowing through dealer balance sheets as leveraged fixed income positions continue losing value.

Meanwhile the $2.9 trillion Biden stimulus proposal may boost the US economy, but it will be a disaster for the increasingly fragile stock and bond markets. Here’s why, and what you should do about it.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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Tax Collections Did Better in December But The Bond Market Still Broke

Lee Adler

The risks are astronomical despite improved tax collections.

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Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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How to Play the S&P Heading for 4200

Lee Adler

This report shows why that’s the target, and adds a few more swing trade picks to take advantage.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Now That We’re Through the Month-end QE Shortage

Lee Adler

We have a little tightness in the market at the end of every month. That’s because the Treasury issues a big wad of TP and the Fed isn’t there to absorb it. The Fed is just doing its piddly little $20 billion a week of Treasury purchases, and the Treasury is slugging the market with $100 billion or so of new supply.

Last week the actual numbers were worse. The last QE injection was $6 billion on December 23. They then didn’t do another one until Monday January 4, with $8.8 billion. Meanwhile, the Treasury plopped $164 billion in new supply on to the market on December 31.

We got through the deluge relatively unscathed. But there’s a lot to look forward to for the rest of the month.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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Projections Point Higher, So When Will Shorts Start Working?

Lee Adler

Cycle configurations remain bullish. I have updated cycle projections for both the short and intermediate term, and the long term. There’s no respite in sight for bears yet, but a few more shorts than usual showed up in this week’s chart picks. Here’s what that could

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The Monster In the Room Is Not Make Believe

Lee Adler

Back in September I wrote to you about why I was giving up on the banking system indicators. I’ve reposted that rant in an addendum to this report. Essentially it boils down to this. Every time there’s a critical problem in the banking system due to banker malfeasance, the Fed steps in to paper it over and reward the criminals.

That’s why we focus on the Fed more than anything else.

The banking indicators were useful once upon a time. The Fed has rendered them irrelevant. But I promised to keep an eye on them, so herein is a review. It makes me sick and should make you sick too, but we’re not here to fight the Fed. We’re here to make money by understanding and playing according to the Fed’s rules. The Fed’s first order of business is always to protect its banker clients. And it does that very well indeed.

Once again trouble is brewing, and the Fed will need to come up big again to prevent it from blowing up the banking sector. If history is any guide, the Fed will be there. It may be to the detriment of those who don’t own capital, but they don’t matter. The Fed doesn’t care about them, and refuses to take responsibility for the intractable problems that has caused our society.

Consequently, being a bear for the right reasons does not pay. To make money in these markets you must play on the side of the criminals that run the show, the Fed and its client banks.

These banking indicators help us to understand just what they’re doing, and where the landmines might be that one day could blow this whole game to smithereens.

This brings us to a recurring theme. The first sign of potential systemic blowup would be an upside breakout in the 10 year Treasury yield. It would mean that the Fed had lost control, and that the system was careening toward an abyss from which there might be no Fed response big enough to escape.

We’ll take a look at that, but also some other problems in the banking system balance sheet that the banks and the Fed are pretending don’t exist. Well, they exist and they’re bubbling up just below the surface, to burst forth one of these days in the not too distant future.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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Gold Gets Ready To Make Its Move

Lee Adler

A big cycle low appears to be forming. Here’s what needs to happen for the up phase to play well.

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