The Fed publishes a huge pile of data on the dealers’ holdings, transactions, and financing each week. It’s organized in a way that’s completely useless for our purposes. It’s granular to the nth degree, not aggregated as we need it to be.
Over the past couple of weeks I’ve thought about how to aggregate the data in a way that would make sense, and perhaps tell us something.
I managed to make some sense of it. It’s not the holy grail that I was hoping for, but it’s interesting. And again, it shows just how insanely leveraged the system is. The Fed simply can’t allow a selloff in the bond market. It would be catastrophic.
Here’s the chart that shows why. There’s a lot we can learn from it about just how much danger we face.
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