Primary Dealer data is always among the most important types of data for us. I look at it in as many ways as possible with the data that’s available.
On rare occasions the data tells us that change is under way. Most of the time, it simply confirms what we already had concluded.
Today, the macro data on the Primary Dealers and the big banks does not support the strong bank earnings that the big boys reported this week. The data suggests that a supply tsunami will hit the market soon (at the time projected in one of our recent reports). The Primary Dealers’ difficulties will become paramount, and the Q1 bank profits will have proven illusory.
The markets will have foreshadowed the reporting of that before the news is out, as always. Technical Analysis should sound the clarions as the turn gets under way. In the meantime, this analysis tells us that the conditions for a turn are building toward a crescendo.
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