I took some time off from trading this week, which was probably a good thing, considering the whippiness and suddenness of the changes of direction. I ran screens during the week, but did not look at them. For the week there were 115 buy signals and 137 sell signals. The picks below are from the screen I ran from Friday’s data.
Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. Then I apply technical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. This typically results in between 30 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
Last week was a rough ride with all the whipsaws. 5 stops got clipped. The chart pick list had an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days.
That was a significant decline from the previous week’s gain of 6% and average holding time of 15 days.
This table shows how that compares with the previous 7 weeks.
|Week Ended||Gain/Loss||Average Days Held|
The list remains 100% long.
The current screen from charts as of the close on April 23, had 50 total signals with 38 buy signals against 12 sell short signals. One of those was an inverse fund, so 39 signals were bullish, 11 bearish.
Those in bold I’ll add to the chart pick list as of Monday’s open (Subscribers click here. First time subscribers, try the service risk free for 90 days). There are three, all buys. The stop price is a protective stop level, or a do not enter level if price is below on buys or above on sells on the open on Monday. Note that I avoid all biotechs because of their propensity for countertrend surprises.
The total number of signals has been generally trending down since the March 27 surge of 163 signals, of which 155 were buys. This diminution is normal as a trend progresses. Initial surges occur at significant intermediate term turning points. They generate residual momentum for several weeks.
The current small edge to the buy side suggests that the uptrend is losing momentum. But we’d need to see a big increase in sell signals, with a big edge to that side, before a significant market downturn.
Last Wednesday there were 56 bearish signals. That’s enough to signal a pullback, but I think we need to see triple digits to see a full fledged intermediate correction, or possible major top. So for the time being, I’ll continue to favor the buy side, and view the charts with sell signals more skeptically.
I’ll post the technical market update later.
Now I’m headed out to enjoy this beautiful sunny 68 degree day here by the Adriatic Sea in Zadar, Croatia! I haven’t been vaccinated yet, so I need that Vitamin D!
Want to know what the new picks are, along with the winners still on the list from last week? Subscribe to the Technical Trader service and find out! New subscribers can try it risk free for the first 90 days.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.