2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
Volatile rangebound trading is a meat grinder for swing trades. Last week lived up to that. List performance slipped to an average of +0.2%, down from +2.1% the week before, on an average holding period of 10 days, up from 8 days the week before. In trending markets this number would normally be around 13-14 days. The percentage change assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.
10 picks hit stop triggers, leaving 8 on the list. All are longs, and all look well positioned for additional gains, but I have kept stops tight, just in case. I have adjusted most stops.
Here’s the list performance by symbol last week, along with updated closeouts, and adjusted stop levels (Table in subscriber report). Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
The current screen from charts as of the close on May 21, had 24 buys and 7 sells. It’s a small number, in part because so many signals were triggered over the past week. Last Friday there were 159 total signals with 153 buy signals against 6 sell signals. That was similar to the numbers coming off the lows on March 28. The spread then was 155 to 8. Despite the whipsaws, the numbers never got deeply negative during the week. Therefore, this still looks like a base for a new upthrust. The shakeouts add to the suspense, but they haven’t damaged the outlook yet.
For the week as a whole, there were 158 buys versus 70 sells, a spread of +88. That’s down from last Friday’s 224 buy signals and 125 sells, a spread of +99. The 5 day total peaked on Thursday at +218.
We haven’t seen that play out in prices yet. But probability says that it will. It should happen this week. If it doesn’t, we go back to the playbook.
I did not see an setups that I liked this week. That’s both a product of, and a contributing factor to the market’s whippiness of the past couple of weeks. We have enough picks already if the market breaks out topside. If there’s going to be a downside break that looks sustainable, we should get signals early enough to get on it and ride.
Here’s the raw data from Friday’s market.
See the charts in the addenda (in subscriber report). I’ll post the technical market update later.