Cycles are still bullish, with the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles ideally due to top out concurrently in xxxx (subscriber version). The 6 month cycle projection is xxxx (subscriber version).
Cycle projections for short term cycles point to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version). The 13 week cycle is just turning up. There’s no projection for it yet. I noted last week that, “A stronger period is due in the 13 week cycle beginning in mid June that should support reaching those targets, or more.”
The third rail chart starts this week with the S&P just below the centerline of a new short term uptrend channel. That line rises from xxxx to xxxx this week (subscriber version). If they cross that, it should catapult the index higher. Trend support starts the week at xxxx and ends around xxxx (subscriber version). That would need to be broken for there to be any material downside.
On the weekly chart, the uptrend remains intact. Trend support is at xxxx. Resistance and likely initial upside target is xxxx. If cleared xxxx would be the next target.
On the monthly chart, May ended slightly above a channel line dating from last August. The market would need to gain 100 points to stay on that line in June. If the market clears xxxx in June, a move to xxxx and beyond would be likely. There’s a more important trendline at xxxx from the 2009 low. If broken it would suggest major top formation.
The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.
Cycle screening measures were mixed but on the weak side last week. They could signal either a rally or a selloff from their current position. A down day early in the weak could be a significant sell signal for the intermediate term. An up day would merely continue the status quo of churning sideways on a narrow base of support.
The chart pick list treaded water along with the market, with an average gain of 1% with an average holding period of 14 calendar days last week. 2 stops got picked off in rangebound action. I added two new picks, both longs, leaving a total of 6 picks on the list, all on the buy side.
For the past 5 trading days, there were 103 buys versus 140 sells, a spread of -37. That’s down from last Friday’s +47. That’s down from a peak of +218 on May 20. That report is published here. (Subscribers)
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.