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Where The End Stage Rally is Headed

Most cycles are in up phases or trending mode. Cycle projections range from xxxx-xxxx. Time analysis suggests that concurrent up phases should last xxxx xxxx (in subscriber report). A 10-12 month cycle high is due xxxx. There’s currently no projection on that cycle.

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The S&P starts the week at the top of a short term channel on the third rail chart. Trend resistance runs from 4373 to 4395 this week. Support runs from 4324 to 4345, with more important support starting at 4260 and rising to 4300. If the market stays between those lines, the trend status quo stays in force. An upside breakout would indicate acceleration. A downside breakout would suggest a possible change of trend.

On the weekly chart, the SPX has cleared wedge resistance at 4320 and is now taking aim at channel resistance at 4500. It would need a weekly close below xxxx (in subscriber report) to break the uptrend.

New long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx (in subscriber report) with highs due between xxxxxxx and xxxxxxxx.

On the monthly chart, June ends with the S&P testing an upper channel line at 4280. That line will be around 4350 at the end of July. A longer term trendline represents additional resistance around 4400. A much longer term trendline represents support around 4185 in July.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures were notably weak, considering the broad market averages made a new high. They are barely positive, and ominous negative divergences persist. I have deferred to the standard price indicators. The weakness in the cycle screening numbers should be taken as a warning.

The chart pick list has been dead in the water. False signals have proliferated as the market has churned around new highs, with no broad strength. Despite a huge number of new buy signals on Friday, most appear to be the result of rangebound noise.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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