This Friday’s screens had 25 buys and 29 sells (including one buy on an inverse ETF). That compares with the previous Friday’s 7 buy signals and 42 sell signals. This is the third straight week with a majority of sell signals. 1344 stocks met the initial screening criteria. Only 4% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal.
We’ve had plenty of advance warnings for the current weakness.
9/13/21 But there are hints of a downturn that suggest that it’s finally time to actively consider adding shorts to the list, something that I’ve assiduously avoided for the past 18 months.
9/13/21Again this week, one of the interesting things in these signals was that 9 of them were bearish signals on fixed income ETFs. Last week it was ten. They’re not movers and not really candidates for trades, but it squares with our liquidity analysis that the bond market will be a bad place to be from here on.
9/13/21 Likewise there were numerous sell signals on REITs. That’s another bearish sign for not just the group, but for fixed income and the stock market. I don’t like to trade REITs. They tend not to trend, but to jump around like rangebound Mexican jumping beans. But the bearish indications are beginning to coalesce into a theme that fits our outlook.
Last week I put a toe in the bearish waters with 3 shorts. I wanted to wait for a bounce to add more. The market may not be so kind as to accommodate that. When is it ever?
Meanwhile, 3 buy side picks are hanging on. I’ve adjusted the stop levels on those.
In addition, I’m adding two shorts to the list this week, XXX, and XXX, (subscriber version only) as of the 3 PM price on Monday. Delayed entry time may or may not be a tactical winner, but with Monday morning’s broad market weakness, a mid-day bounce could give a better entry price. It’s a crapshoot, which, as always, is up to your judgment if you are watching and trading these picks.
Last week was another losing week. I did not have enough shorts, with only 3 short picks to start on Monday, and one went the wrong way. Three more buy side picks got stopped out after 7 were stopped the week before.
Including both those stopped out and those left open, the list had an average loss of 1.1% with an average holding period of 16 days. That was slightly worse than the prior week’s loss of 0.9% with an average 18 day hold. Several weeks of small gains have been wiped out in this transitional period. I need to do better.
Charts and table of existing picks below (subscriber version only).
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.
These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk.