Short term cycles look to be headed for a breather. But don’t expect much downside.
I must now rate the 10-12 month cycle as xxxxxxx , with a strong possibility that it has begun xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase, with an updated projection of xxxx.
Short term cycles have entered what should be consolidations lasting a couple of weeks. They may manifest as merely a slowing in the rate of advance or a trading range.
On the third rail chart the SPX broke out to a new high and continued its climb in the upper half of its short term uptrend channel. The top of the short term channel starts the week at xxxx and rises to end the week at xxxx.
On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx. for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxx at the end of November (subscriber version only). .
Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.
On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at xxxx in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxx would set a course toward xxxx in November and possibly xxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.
Cycle screening measures are in a pullback but remain generally bullish.
Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.