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Market Variant Not As Bad As It Looks

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Cycles There’s no evidence yet of downturns in the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles. They’re still in up phases, but currently without projections.

The 13 week cycle has obviously turned down, ideally due to last xxxxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) . What can’t be known yet is the shape that the down phase will take.  If the xxxx area breaks down, the target would then be around xxxx . But if the xxxx  area holds, they could bump back up to the xxxx  area by year end.

On the third rail chart the SPX fell into a No Man’s Land on Friday. Support is xxxxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version). It rises to xxxx at the end of the week.  If it breaks, the targets would be xxxx, then xxxx. If the xxxx area holds, then the market should quickly rebound to the xxxx area.


xxxx (subscriber version).

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years.

As long as the market is above xxxx (subscriber version) at year end, it would still be in a long term uptrend and the projections would still be doable.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures broke down, a week after I was skeptical about the negative indications. Now we know. 6 month cycle measures are now neutral. Another down week would turn them negative. The cumulative line is on the cusp. Market weakness this week would trigger a  xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version)

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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