In the long run, we’re all dead, and so is this bull market, whose end is ideally due this year. But in the short run, it still has room to run. We must give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt until there’s more hard evidence that a turn is under way.
Third Rail Chart- The S&P is trading near the center of a short term uptrend channel. The first support line rises from xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version) this week. A second line is just below that. The S&P would need to break both lines to have a shot at a downside reversal.
The 13 week cycle is in an up phase ideally due to top out xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version). The cycle projection is xxxx, which is an outlier at this point. The 13 week and 6 month cycle up phases would remain in force as long as the market stays above xxxx.
Cycle Screening data is at an inflection point. The current negative divergence between these indicators and the market averages doesn’t mean much yet. It only will if there’s downside follow through this week. Otherwise, the benefit of the doubt still goes to the bullish case.
Liquidity is turning bearish, but it will be a gradual process that would allow for extension of the stock market rally consistent with the above projections.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.