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We have some consequential new data in the past few days since I posted the QE/Treasury supply update on January 3. Treasury yields are breaking out. The RRP slush fund has reversed, and T-bill issuance is continuing at a breakneck pace. An initial jobs report shows tremendous growth, as foretold by the daily withholding tax data.
The ADP private payrolls data was released yesterday, and it accurately reflected what the withholding tax data for December already told us— that jobs growth is still going strong, or even accelerating. Whether the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls farce release on Friday shows this or not is anyone’s guess. You know the truth.
The US economy is going gangbusters, but the Fed has created and is imminently facing the greatest crisis in its history.
Here’s the latest in this ongoing financial soap opera for the ages.
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