The cycle picture is mixed but leaning toward starting xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). phase. How far will it get? My guess is “not very.” Nor is there much indication of significant near term xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). Just beware if the market is weak early this week. That would suggest structural problems that could lead to xxxx xxxx xxxx . Crashes happen when apparent bottoms drop out.
Here are the particulars.
Cycles are now opposed. The outlook is more bearish if the market xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). , more bullish if not. The 10-12 month, 6 month, and 13 week cycles all still appear to be xxxx xxxx xxx. The two longer cycles hit initial downside projections, but xxxx xxxx xxxx. The 13 week cycle projection is still xxxx. The 6-7 week and 4 week cycles are in up phases, with a 4 week cycle peak due now.
Third Rail Chart- The downtrend is intact for now. It would need to clear xxxx this week to break the first downtrend channel. Then subsequently it would need to break xxxx to get something more bullish going. On the other hand, a daily close below xxxx would signal that more declines are likely. A close below xxxx would break a long term uptrend. A close below xxxx would confirm the bear market.
Long Term Weekly- The market made a typical intermediate term bottoming signal by breaking a long term wave channel, then recovering within it. Given the rollover in the 3-4 year cycle indicators, the rebound in the market suggests xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version)
So far, there’s no material change in the long term projections of xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version), but I now believe that they are wrong and will not be met. I’m giving these no weight, and instead focusing on the price patterns, support breaks, and cycle indicators to show us the way.
Monthly Chart – The market now needs to be above xxxx at the end of February to get back into the two uptrend channels. Failure to do that would imply the beginning of xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If that does not happen, the target in February would be xxxx xxxx .
Cycle screening measures made a lower high than the December and January peaks, at least so far. The prior low was also lower than the previous one. Therefore the intermediate term pattern xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) However, other indications are more bullish. The outlook is therefore xxxx xxxx xxxx . If the rally xxxx xxxx xxxx more bullish and that should play out into xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If the market declines early in the week, the numbers will turn negative again and confirm the bear market.
The cumulative cyclical breadth index stopped confirming the bull market in August 2020. This shows concentration of buying in fewer and fewer big stocks. Such long periods of negative divergence between market breadth and price indexes often precede bear markets. I will keep you posted on how the pattern is playing out this time.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.