The stock market seemed to make a 13 week cycle low in the expected time window late last week. But as we watch in horror as Putin brutally attacks Ukraine, it’s natural to wonder if this will stick. My guess is that we’ll see ….. (subscriber version)…
On the other hand, the disruption to the world system of bank transfers and locking down Russian central bank foreign exchange transactions are unknowns. Fed and ECB intervention are certain, but uncertain in whether they’ll impact the stock market in terms of preventing a crash. Right now, the charts suggest that crash risk has been xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).
We’ll see. I’m not going to pretend to know the unknowable. Day traders will need to trade the minute charts. The rest of us should try to stay disciplined in doing what the daily charts tell us. The big increase in volatility, which is very short term wave amplitude, makes that difficult. It’s a sign that liquidity is drying up. That ain’t bullish. That’s for sure.
The 6 month cycle may also be bottoming. The projection of xxxx was hit, but there are no indicator confirmations yet.
The 10-12 month cycle has been largely dormant for a couple of years, and it’s not clear when a bottom is due on this down phase. However, the projection of xxxx seems solid.
Third Rail Chart – The market would have to break a trendline that ends the week at xxxx (subscriber version) to signal the end of the intermediate downtrend. On the downside, the first likely support area would be around (subscriber version), with a test of xxxx possible.
Long Term Weekly- Long term cycle momentum has joined 3-4 year cycle indicators in signaling a likely bear market.
Monthly Chart – The market now looks unlikely to return to the uptrend channel. Support is around xxxx in February, and approximately xxxx in March. Long term momentum is on a preliminary sell signal.
Cycle screening measures rebounded last week. The rally is suspect because it wasn’t preceded by a positive divergence in this indicator. The indicator is also well below the past several highs. Therefore, the short term pattern is still bearish. Last week’s low was also lower than the last short term low. This follows a series of lower highs. Therefore the intermediate pattern is also bearish.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.