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Market Still in “Fool The Majority” Mode

Cycles – The 6 month cycle has is in an up phase, ideally due to top out xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).

Short term cycles and the 13 week cycle may have peaked, but there’s no sign yet of a xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). The down phases could xxxx xxxxxxxx  xxxxxxxx xxxx in the 6 month cycle up phase. The S&P would need to drop below xxxx to turn the down phase into something more damaging.

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Third Rail Chart –  Friday’s rebound may have set up a new uptrend channel. A down day Monday would invalidate that thesis, but a solid up day would confirm it.

If the verdict is down, the first place to look for support would be around xxxx. The deeper such a move would go, the more likely it would be to be a resumption of the primary downtrend.

On the other hand, a rally through xxxx would reaffirm the meltup, which would then probably target a full test of the December high.

Long Term Weekly– The February-March lows appear to have been a two year cycle low. That only tells us that an up phase is due. It does not tell us the absolute direction of that up phase. That depends on the longer cycles.

The 3-4 year cycle is in a top phase, but it still has an unmet projection of xxxx (subscriber version) that can’t be ruled out until the top breaks down. That would require a weekly close below xxxx.

A 7 year cycle top is due this year in a projection range of xxxxxxxx. It’s not yet possible to say whether the top is complete or a new high is still on the docket.

Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate signals weakening short term momentum, but xxxx (subscriber version) for the intermediate term. The same is true for the 6 month cycle measures, the 29 day MA, and the cumulative line.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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