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US Stock Market Celebrates the Froth of July

Badda bing, badda boom! Despite the pullback, bears are not out of the woods yet in the very short run, but technical analysis suggests xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx ahead.

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Cycles- It’s not clear yet if the up phases in the 4 week through 13 week cycles are finished. A close below xxxx would suggest that the up phase is complete. Holding above that would suggest that it isn’t. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s still no sign that the rally is the beginning of a new 6 month cycle up phase. The downside projection has risen to xxxx, still well xxxx the June low. Therefore we should still look for a xxxx xxxxxxxxx once xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The bottom of a new channel starts the week around xxxx and ends it at roughly xxxx. That needs to be broken to signal the end of the uptrend and resumption of the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.

The top of the intermediate downtrend channel starts the post holiday week at xxxx, and comes down to roughly xxxx to end the week. If that line holds, then we are still in the midst of a powerful downtrend. If they clear that line, the rally should extend to xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached. In recent decades major trends have correlated more with the direction of monetary policy, not with long term cyclicality. I think that it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to analyzing classical the technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxxx-xxxxx. If the market breaks xxxxx, then the conventional measured move target would be xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, the market is in a counter trend rally. If it clears xxxx this week, it’s likely to head for major resistance around xxxxx in July. Conversely, if it doesn’t clear the top of the trend channel near xxxx this week, the downtrend would remain intact. That would lead to xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx, with a good chance of a breakdown that would target xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting on the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing a month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The indicator peaked at +1600 on Monday June 27, and then pulled back but stayed well into positive territory. That was the highest peak since November 2021. In a bull market, that would be a bullish indication for the bigger trend. But since December 2021, each time the indicator exceeded +1000 has immediately preceded a short term top. Since January, each of three such peaks led to declines to lower lows in the market averages. Non subscribers click here to access.

This is consistent with the conventional technical measures suggesting xxx x xxx ahead after this up phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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