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Swing Trades This Week – Once Upon a Time Old Traders Told Me, Never Short A Dull Market

Sounds good to me right now.

In fact, it is a good time to take a nap on the beach. Under an umbrella! Seriously. I’ve lived in sunny beach areas for 35 years. Let’s just say the sun hasn’t loved back the sun lovers. Not pretty. Not pretty at all. That glamorous tan you get at 25 and 25 and 45 doesn’t look so glamourous at 55 and 65 and 75. Unless you like deeply creased leather.

You’re better off sitting in front of a computer screen. Get your 15 minutes of sun, and your 30 minutes of exercise every day, and then sit in front of that screen and trade your ass off all day long. Live long and prosper, and play with your kids or grandkids every day if you have them! Life is short.

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 15 charts with multiple buy signals, and 24 with more than one sell signal. These numbers are very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The minuscule output reflects a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way.

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Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were only 6 buy signals and 28 sell signals. Again, these are very low numbers. The edge to the sell side is too small to hang our hats on. Like last week, I see no reason to get excited about the market’s direction, either way.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I found two that were interesting enough to add on the buy side. I didn’t like any of the potential shorts well enough to add them. There will be more opportunities on the short side soon enough, but I’m not seeing them at the moment.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This week we start with 2 open picks, both buys with new or adjusted stops. The two picks hardly moved. We had no stopouts. The net result was a big fat zero. I won’t try to generate fake excitement when there’s not a damn thing to be excited about. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are two new picks, both buys. Are they likely to generate excitement? No, but like the two existing picks, they’re positioned well enough to maybe generate a few shekels over the next few weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The 4 picks are shown on the table in the report. Charts are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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