Looking at the final list of double screened output for last week there were 26 charts with multiple buy signals versus 31 the week before. Four of the buys were inverse ETFs including one bond fund, so the edge to the bear side was even bigger.
Surprisingly there were 59 charts with a second or third sell signal on the week, versus 29 the week before. This is the second straight week with an edge to the sell side. And the edge was much bigger in the more recent week. It may be a tell, but it doesn’t guarantee a reversal. Broad market indicators aren’t signaling a top yet. So we’ll see. Non-subscribers click here for access.
For the purpose of this report, the focus is on individual stock swing trade picks anyway.
Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 16 buy signals and 51 sell signals.
I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. Obviously, I expected to find more sells than buys, like last week. Just one problem. Of the shorts that I chose last week, one was a profit killer. Fortunately, there were enough winners to overcome my one really lousy pick. Non-subscribers click here for access.
7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.
June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.
6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Last week 4 picks hit their stops and I will close 3 more as of this morning’s opening print. The result on all open and closed picks to start this week is an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
After reviewing the charts, I didn’t see anything I liked on the buy side. Most of the sells looked too early. And many were bond funds. They looked good, but don’t move enough for our purposes. I only liked one chart on the sell side as a short, XXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.