The final list of double screened output for last week had 14 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 78 charts with second or third sell signals to end the week. That’s a lot of sell signals. Friday on a standalone basis had just 8 buy signals and 35 sell signals. The large number of repeat sell signals suggested that I should find a number of short sale candidates as I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria.
I wasn’t disappointed. I added 7 shorts to the list this week, to be tracked as of Monday’s opening price, as usual. They’re shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Last week I had 5 buys, including 3 oil and gas sector picks. They were huge winners, mostly on the strength of a big move on Friday. I’ll get to that below.
The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.
The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.
7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.
June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately.
6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.
8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%.
Last week one buy side pick was stopped out with a gain of 29%. That really saved August performance. Picks closed out in August so far have had an average gain of only 2.6% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days. My system struggled for most of the month, but all that changed last week. The average gain of open and closed picks was 9.5%, which was near a record for this system. The average holding period was 12 calendar days, less than 2 weeks! The performance is shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.
I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.