The strength of rally took me by surprise, I must say, but not the timing. Short term cycles were due for an upturn, but nothing is ever certain in this business. That’s why I use trailing stops on swing trade picks. They pick up the better part of what I miss (hopefully).
But is this rally for real? Will it stick? That’s the question, and it hasn’t been answered yet. We’ll look for an answer Monday and Tuesday. There’s reason to think the rally will stick for a short while, but not beyond that. Below are the particulars.
Cycles- Short term cycles have turned xxxxxxx. It’s a little early for a 13 week cycle xxxxxx but if the SPX clears xxxx this week, it would suggest a move to target either xxxx, xxxx, or xxxx in a 13 week cycle up phase. Ideally, that would end the up phases in the x xxxxxx and xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx cycles. Conversely, a break below xxxxx would suggest an aborted xxx xxxx xxxx xx phase and an xxxxxx xxxxx to the xxxx phases in the longer cycles. Non subscribers click here to access.
Third Rail The market broke out of the crash channel and has set up a broad intermediate xxxxxx channel. The bottom of the channel starts the week at xxxx and rises at xxpoints per day (PPD) to put it just below xxxx on Friday. The trend is xx as long as the SPX stays above that. Non subscribers click here to access.
Long Term Weekly Chart – The 18 month – 2 year cycle channel is set up to turn toward a flat up phase. However if the SPX finishes any week above xxxx, then that up phase would have an upslope. Long term indicators remain on the xxxx side. There’s xxxx basis to expect that a xxxxx bottom is forming. Non subscribers click here to access.
Monthly Chart – The August reversal set up a downtrend channel for September onward. It allows for a drop to trend support around xxxx. The bottom of the new downtrend channel is at xxxx in September. To break the new downtrend channel the SPX would need to end September above xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate exploded higher last week. But more xxxxxx would be needed to turn the xxxxxx term pattern xxxxxxxx. If the market xxxxxx early this week, the pattern will remain xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
This looks more like a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx signal for the 6 month cycle than a xxx xxxx phase. These are usually short lived. Non subscribers click here to access.
The liquidity situation is xxxx xxxx bullish, but only for the xxxx xxxx period. After that, the screws will tighten again. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/09/08/special-bulletin-t-bill-paydown/
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.