For the week ended September 30, there were 19 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, and 35 with second or third sell signals. Bears still had an edge but it was slight, and turns often occur without warning, particularly as a swing ages. And this one is aged.
On Friday on a standalone basis there were 13 buys and 9 sells. This is still nothing to get excited about for either side. Without a more lopsided advantage on both the multiple signal look, and the last day look, I want to tread lightly. This decline is already mature, and I’m concerned about a short covering spike, despite the lack of evidence. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.
9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.
7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.
June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.
6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I was underwhelmed on both sides. So I’ll stand pat and ride with what remains on the list after two picks hit their trailing stops last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The four remaining picks have gained an average of 4.7% on an average holding period of 7 calendar days as of today (Monday). The normal maximum number of picks is 12, so with 4 currently open, that implies just a 25% capital commitment with the rest assumed to be cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.
9/26/22 Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.
But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen. Life must be lived! Non-subscribers click here for access.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.