Obviously, no market moves in a straight line, and this one is no exception. The technical analysis says the rally in Treasuries will have legs, albeit likely to be short. Then the underlying forces of supply and demand, with constantly more Treasury supply and limited or even diminishing demand, with a severely weakened Primary Dealer system at its core, will rear its ugly head once again.
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Despite the seeming moderation of headline inflation data, the conditions cited previously in these comments remain in effect. The speculation that the Fed might ease policy on the basis of this week’s inflation news is useless. Markets move on the fact of Fed policy change, not on the basis of Wall Street promoting such changes. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
For perspective, here’s a look back at key points of the summaries of these Primary Dealer position updates that I’ve posted this year. We start with the most recent… and follow with a look at their current positioning, and the reasons why they present unprecedented risk for investors. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
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