The major cycle technical bear case may already be dead. This week is probably the last chance for bears to reassert themselves and regain the upper hand. Otherwise, indications will tilt toward a 3-4 year cycle low is behind us.
That doesn’t mean that a major secular upleg is ahead. I would expect something along the lines of a late 1960s, early 70s cycle bull move that merely retests the 2021 high. But this is conjecture. December is the month where one side or the other must prove itself. As of now, bulls have the edge, but if the month ends with the S&P 500 below xxxx, bears get the ball again. Non subscribers click here to access.
In the short run, my trading posture would be to xxxx xxxx dips and xxxx xxxxx rips, but not to xxxx them yet. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycles- The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between now and xxxxxxx xx. Cycle projections have now risen to xxxx-xxxx. If they clear resistance in the xxxx-xxxx zone, I would take that projection as a given. If they don’t, then we watch day to day for signs of whether it’s a top or consolidation. Non subscribers click here to access.
Third Rail – Bears need the SPX to end the week below xxxx to have a shot at reversing the rally. Ultimately, a breakdown below xxxx would be required to get anything going on the downside. If resistance in the xxxx-xxxx is cleared, the next target area would be around xxxx, and if that’s broken then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Long Term Weekly Chart – The surge in 10-12 month cycle momentum suggests that the market will make a run at xx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That in turn could trigger a cascade of longer term buy signals on 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators. This week seems like the bears’ last chance to make a stop and regain the upper hand. Non subscribers click here to access.
Updated long term cycle projections suggest that the bottom is behind us. There’s still time for reversion to something more consistent with a bear market if the rally reverses and ends December weaker than xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx . That’s a big if. Non subscribers click here to access.
Monthly Chart – The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycle Screening Measures – Bullish short and intermediate term patterns established in early November have yet to be broken. A couple of down days would be needed this week to break that trend. Likewise, continued strength would be a bullish indication for the longer cycles.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.