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The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend

A couple of weeks ago the market averages came right to long term downtrend lines from the January peak. At that point, there were multiple signs that the rally would continue. We considered all the “what ifs,” including the one that entailed stopping dead at the trendlines and reversing. That seemed unlikely. But it’s what happened. It reaffirms the bear market for now. Now the cycle setups and conventional technical analysis indicate that there’s xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxxx for this downturn to xxxxxxx.

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Cycles– Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles now appear to be xxxxx xxxxxxxx. The 13 week cycle appears to have the potential for xxxxxx xxxxxx. There are no projections yet but the cycle low is not ideally due until xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. That’s plenty xxx xxx xx more xxxxxxxxx to develop after short term cycles finish an up cycle due between xxxxx and xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycle lows are due xxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – The S&P 500 is now within a short term downtrend channel whose lower line starts this week at xxxx and drops by xxx points per day (PPD) to end the week around xxxx. The centerline now represents resistance. It drops from xxxx to approximately xxxx this week.

Should the S&P drop below xxxx early in the week, it would suggest a possible crash. The most significant support would be in the xxxx xxxxxx range. The next target below that would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – Last week’s selloff miraculously preserved the long term downtrend channels. Long term and 3-4 year cycle indicators are on the verge of xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Failed signals are normally strong trend continuation indicators. In this case, they would xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart  – The S&P turned down right at the long term downtrend channel line on the monthly chart. Long term momentum is back on the cusp of xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx a secular bear market if it happens. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate indicator remains short term xxxxxxxx and is near xxxxxxx intermediate term. The indications suggest a 13 week cycle xxxx xxxxxx and 6 month cycle xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Posted in 2 - Technical Trader
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