Federal withholding tax collections soared last month and continued to do so in the first few days of January. I wondered if this was an anomaly, but correlated data supports it. Regardless of what the BLS reports this morning, which is always a crapshoot, there is no doubt that there was a jobs boom in December. Sooner or later that will show up in the jobs data. The Fed won’t like it, and neither will the market. But whether it will be this morning, or in next month’s data that this surprise shows up, I don’t know.
What I do know, and what you should know is the following. These are real, hard facts that you can act on.
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