Bulletin: The US Treasury just announced another T-bill paydown. That brings the one week total, April 4-11, to $55 billion. That’s more than enough in the short term to offset negative macro liquidity drivers. This is the April tax season effect on steroids already, and it isn’t even April 15 yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
New game, new rules. In this report, I want to attempt to show you in more pictures and fewer words (hard for me), where things stand in terms of macroliquidity, as we embark on this new journey into the unknown. Unknown not just to us, but especially to clueless policymakers. After all, they’re the ones who created this mess in the first place. Yet, Wall Street thinks that they know how to fix it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Since we no longer have the benefit of them knowing, and telling us, the full scope of policy in advance, we now have to pay even closer attention to the liquidity flows. Our hope is that that is good enough. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
As we know, money talks. Central Bank BS walks. Talk is cheap. Markets can’t and don’t anticipate the future. Money moves the markets. Follow the money. Read and react. That’s the name of the new game. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
So here are my readings on what I believe are critical measures that will help to give us a bit of clarity on where we are now and where this mess might be headed. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Where we’re headed in liquidity is still xxx xxxxxxx. The stock and bond market rallies are xxxing that. That is xxxxxxxxxxx over the long haul. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Yes, we know there are xxxxxxx that will promote xxxxxxx at xxxxxxxxxx. That’s particularly true now with the effect of April Treasury paydowns. But once that cash has run through the system, usually around the end of May, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Will it even last that long? While the liquidity measures in the weeks ahead will help us to understand the context, we must rely on the Technical Analysis for shorter term timing. In terms of the big picture, the forces of liquidity aren’t xxxxxxxxx xxx. The hope that the Fed either will pivot, or already has, are xxxx the fumes that the markets are running on right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Again, this xxxxxxx sustainable. I might be a little xxxxx under the circumstances, but with a trigger finger. I’m not xxxxx anything, and not ready to get xxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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