The debt ceiling issue has been settled. Investors breathed a sigh relief and bought stocks. But they did it on margin, because the cash liquidity for it sure isn’t there. So we can probably count the longevity of this rally with the fingers of our hands, and it won’t be in months. And probably not weeks either. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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Of course, liquidity isn’t a timing device. It merely establishes context. And the context ain’t bullish. Animal spirits and increased leverage have a shelf life, and this one is about to run out. The timing is likely to depend on the onslaught of new Treasury supply that’s about to hit, now that the debt ceiling has gone away for a couple of years. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
In the short run, anything can happen, especially when hedge funds have a record short position in Treasuries, which we have discussed elsewhere. But the liquidity context argues for the rally in stocks to end soon. Timing that is a matter for technical analysis. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
This report tells what to expect, why, and how. You need to know that so that you are prepared to react properly when the time is right. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
My swing trade screens for stock picks have led me to select only buys lately, until this week when I began to tentatively nibble on the short side. The liquidity picture now suggests that we start to look more closely for opportunities to go short, and to put in trailing stops on our long side trades. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
As for the bond market, once the potential for a short squeeze is out of the way, it will be time to get out yet again. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
