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Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now

That’s because they’re early, and an intervening temporary force should drive xxxx xxxx xxxxx.

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The warning signs from the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system continued last week. The market has acted badly, but this isn’t likely “IT” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx began in early April, and they will continue to xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx  the markets for the next 4 weeks or so. Most of that xxxxx will be coming over the next two weeks. As a result, any additional market decline from here is likely to be xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Timing that will be tricky and a matter for technical analysis. My technical work has suggested that ideally a 6-month cycle low is due xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx. A couple of weeks on either side of that would be normal, so we need to be alert, as illustrated in Monday’s Technical Trader report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We can expect a bigger selloff once the Treasury starts borrowing again, on balance, probably around the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx, and especially when the Fed’s RRP facility is effectively out of cash, which isn’t likely until xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, let’s run through the charts and data so that you can see the logic behind this conclusion. First a review of how this conclusion has evolved over the past couple of months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Posted in 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends, Fed, Central Bank and Banking Macro Liquidity
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