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Author: Lee Adler

Nowhere to Go but Up

Lee Adler

There’s no sign of meaningful downside from the cycle picture, even though a late 6-month cycle down phase remains a possibility. Here’s what to look for next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 10-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxx xxx. A down phase hasn’t materialized. While there’s still time, it may not, due to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in April.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – . The SPX could be making a double top, but Thursday’s high exceeded the earlier high by a hair. If they’re going to top out, they usually miss by a hair. The odds favor xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If they take out the high, there’s immédiate clearance to xxxx, rising to xxxx at the end of the week.   Non subscribers click here to access.

There are a couple of trend support lines at xxxx-xxxx on Monday which would need to be broken for a pullback to happen. The first support area is at xxxx. Only if that’s broken would we get the beginnings of a bigger top pattern.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – 3/24/24 An updated 3-4 year cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due in 2025.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – A strong March turned long-term momentum to the buy side, signaling a likely 7-year cycle up phase. The top of the uptrend channel is around xxxx in April. If cleared, the next trend resistance and target would be roughly xxxx. The upper channel line would become support. For now, xxxx is support.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The End Is Not Nigh

Lee Adler

Or maybe it is. The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system have begun to flash warning signs that the rally is on its last legs.  xxxxxxxxxx, Treasury supply conditions for the next 6 weeks will be favorable for xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Tax revenues in March and April create a cash bulge for the US Treasury. It normally uses that cash to pay down a couple hundred billion in T-bills in April and May. They plan to do so again this season. The money from paying off those T-bills will flow into investor accounts. Some of that money will be used to buy stocks and bonds. That should cause xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx into mid to late May.

But we shouldn’t ignore the signs that this will be the xxxx xxxx xxxxx for this stage of the bull run. A bond market rally should also be another opportunity to xxxxx  fixed income.

Get the report now, for specifics.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving

Lee Adler

That’s right. Always stay flexible. Be the ball. Not the bat.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

A 10-12 month cycle projection has reappeared, and it’s higher. It now points to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.   Non subscribers click here to access.

A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxxxxxxxxxxxx. A new up phase could start and take off in renewed upside acceleration within xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. We need to be prepared for that. So don’t disbelieve it if it happens. Take advantage. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration

Lee Adler

March has been a good month so far. The average gain for picks closed out this month, and those still open as of March 23, was 16.3% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days.  Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

In lieu of my visual review of dozens, if not more than 100, charts generated by the raw data from the screens, I have developed an algorithm overlay that will now make the (almost) final selections. My judgement wasn’t that good anyway.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This method is mechanical and non-judgmental. However, I still review the reduced output for any charts that are generating signals from already extended trends. They probably have more to run, but when they turn, those turns could be fast and violent. This is a risk to be avoided given the weekly publication interval. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

That weekly interval keeps things simple for both of us, a goal to be desired but not often attained. In this case, the method is complicated, and takes place behind the scenes. The goal is that the output should be simple to follow. While I post a table with specific signal indications, I also post the charts of the new buy and sell short picks are posted so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of buy and sell triggers in several time frames. The second filters those for intermediate trend. Previously, I reviewed that output visually. I now apply a third filter instead. It’s a filter of short-term signal triggers as of the day before publication. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This week’s screens generated 24 charts on the buy side and 91 on the sell side on the first pass. On the second pass there were still 24 on the buy side 87 on the sell side. In the screen of final short-term triggers on Friday, there were 3 buys to 7 sells. I excluded charts that were extended in their trends. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. 3 longs and 2 shorts hit their stops during the week leaving 1 short and 5 longs at Friday’s close. I am adding 3 short sales and 2 buys to the list assuming a half position at the opening price and half at the closing price. That means that the list will start the week with 7 longs and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I have adjusted trailing stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Enters Hibernation Season

Lee Adler

The 9-12 month cycle projection has dropped back to xxx, suggesting that xxx xxxx is underway in that cycle. This coincides with likely xxxxxx in all shorter cycles. I have added trailing stops to mining picks to protect profits. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Currently swinging mining picks with average gain of 14.9% on average 44 day hold. Subject to change. Subscribers, see table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag

Lee Adler

The dealers just set a new record extreme of leverage against their bond positions at the end of February. Then they sharply pulled in their horns in early March. Scared much? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Or maybe they’re preparing for the worst in another way. After all, they are required to buy a significant percentage of every Treasury offering by the deal they made with the devil to be its Primary Dealers. And those offerings keep coming in a never-ending tide. The dealers have no choice but to take on inventory, and hopefully get rid of it as fast as they can under current circumstances. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But what if they can’t? What if there aren’t enough buyers to relieve them of that excessive inventory in a market where prices are falling. Or should I say falling because of the excess inventory? There are too many bonds and the Treasury keeps issuing more and more and more. So the dealers hedge. They hedge by shorting Treasury futures. There’s a ready market for that.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Until January, they hadn’t been doing too much hedging. There was some, but it wasn’t notable. They were pretty sanguine about the bond market and their small hedges. But then something changed. They hit a switch and started shorting the Treasury futures like mad. Now they have built up the largest short position in Treasury futures that they have had since 2022. They have enough futures shorts to more than offset the net long position in their Treasury coupon inventories.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Something has changed in their outlook. We need to pay attention. This report shows you the change, tells you what it means, and what to do about it to protect yourself. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

This report shows the pictures that tell the story, and that tells us what to do about it.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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A Top is In, But Which One Is It

Lee Adler

This looks like a 6-month cycle down phase, but ideally it should be xxxx xxxx. With cycles in gear to the xxxxxxxx, it could be xxxxx, but it will end within xxxxx and should xxxxx just as xxxxx. Then we’ll see. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

It could be xxxxxx xxxxxxx, but building xxxxxx xxxxxx takes time. In the meantime, the longer term indicators aren’t xxxx xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits

Lee Adler

List performance was surprisingly stable from the week before given that the previous week was already at a record level for this exercise. The average gain was 13.8% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. That compares with an average gain of 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days in the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This week’s swing trade screens generated 23 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 31 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve developed an additional algo to take the place of visual review for weeding out chart patterns that are not attractive low risk entries here. The net result after that overlay left just 6 charts on the buy side and 13 on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

These are very small numbers so I won’t draw any broad market conclusions from that. However, the fact that the numbers are small confirms what we already sensed. This advance is elderly, and is therefore prone to loss of balance and falls. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 13 open picks, including 10 longs and 3 shorts. Two picks were stopped out and I have no new additions this week. We’ll thus go into the next week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Performance was adversely affected this week by one stock that crashed after having been one of the best performers. This is part of the game, and a drawback of only doing this exercise once a week as opposed to daily. On the other hand, a weekly period has the advantage of avoiding overtrading. There’s no perfect time frame, but doing it weekly allows the trader time to live life rather than staying glued to a trading screen every day. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The culprit in this case was xxx which surprised traders on a revenue “miss” and a weak forecast. It had been uptrending beautifully. Then there were technical warning signs earlier in the week, but unless I go to a daily schedule, which is not on my horizon, then we have to roll with it when sheet happens. That’s the reason why I like to have enough picks to spread risk, so that if one goes really bad, it’s not a killer. And this wasn’t, given that the list still had a record average gain. Voila! The more the merrier. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

By the way, a stop would not have helped since the price opened on a huge gap down, well below any reasonable stop level I may have guessed at. I’ve now indicated a stop just below major trend support. If the uptrend holds, I’ll let this ride, week to week. If not, bye-bye. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve also indicated stops on all but one of the other picks for the purpose of taking profits. Virtually all of these picks are ready to “age out.” Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I reviewed the charts produced by the screens after the application of the new test for suitable setups. I did not like the patterns on either the buy side or the sell side. Even after applying the new filter, there was still nothing that I would consider a low risk, high reward entry setup. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

On the sell side, most were in uptrends, and while they may have peaked, they will be bouncy on the way down as they hit trend support. Again, not ideal entries. I’ll look for sell signals on the rebounds to lower highs for better shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes

Lee Adler

The 9-12 month cycle projection now points to xxxx, but a consolidation is due in the short run as the 13-week cycle appears to have topped out for now. The conventional measured move target of the high base breakout xxx xxxx xxxx. For the advance to continue, gold must xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Currently swinging mining picks with average gain of 17% on average 37 day hold. Subject to change. Subscribers, see table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc.

Lee Adler

The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system are inching closer to suggesting an end to the stock market rally. But they aren’t there yet. It could still take weeks or months.

It’s better not to attempt to anticipate. Money talks, and markets listen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Markets also have the ability to create their own money. And that’s what’s been happening in this bull run. The Fed and its cohorts are not the drivers of this, as they were under the 12 year QE regime. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As animal spirits take hold, eventually they turn into manias. And manias create their own liquidity through the magic of leveraged borrowing. As prices of stocks rise, a cycle of rising prices creates more collateral for borrowing, leading to higher prices, and so on.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Of course, manias ultimately lead to crashes. But they continue until they are exhausted. We look for signs of exhaustion both in the technical market data, which I report in the Technical Trader reports, and in the liquidity data that I report here. In this report, I show you exactly what the charts of the data are telling us to expect in the weeks and months ahead. If you know what’s coming, then you can formulate your own strategy and tactics accordingly. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As I wrote last week, “The end may come quickly, so we need to be prepared and vigilant. Complacency is the trader’s enemy. We must guard against that…” Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Get the report now, for specifics.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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