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Author: Lee Adler

Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows

Lee Adler

Joe will go, but the market won’t go with him. Political events, no matter how much of a watershed they represent, do to cause trend change. Reactions to those events are very short-term, and the market usually returns to the cyclical patterns that were developing before the event, within a few days. That will happen here.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Meanwhile, cycle indicators say that the market won’t go much lower here and that a higher high is still in the offing down the road. Maybe not as high as before, but higher. Here’s when and where to expect both the next top, and a longer term top. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The Sky’s the Limit

Lee Adler

The only thing keeping the market afloat is the willingness of big market participants to take on leverage to continue buying stocks and bonds. Increasingly prodigious amounts of T-bill supply are not pressuring prices as I had forecast back in ancient times, maybe 3 months ago, that they would and should have. Instead, they have become the basis for taking on more debt via repo and margin, and using it to buy other assets such as Treasuries and stocks. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

As a result, I have been suggesting to hold on to longs for the time being, and hold off on shorting. However, the market’s pricing is now so extended versus base liquidity, aka money, that we have to wonder where the limit is? Is it here, or is it the sky? Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

The trend is still in place and there’s no indication yet that it is beginning to turn. On the other hand, there are indications that price to liquidity ratios are at or near extreme trend limits. They’ve been at other apparent limits before and gone through them, as the movement increasingly moves toward the vertical. They’re so vertical now that it looks “end-stagey” to me, but that’s just a gut reaction born of 56 years of observing markets, not an empirical judgment. We need more. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

It will come down when the weight of higher prices becomes too much to absorb. All we can do is closely watch the price measures via technical analysis, and apply basic TA to price/liquidity sentiment measures, looking for the first signs of a change of direction. Given the fragility of the current structure, I suspect that the turn could be faster than usual. I would want to react quickly at the first sign of a turn. In other words, sell first and ask questions later. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

This report shows and explains the critical indicators that you need to follow to stay on top of the market as it tops out. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

 

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Takes the High Road

Lee Adler

Gold chose the high base option. With the breakout, the initial target is xxxx. The cycle chart indicates potential resistance at xxxx with room to run to xxxx over the next month, if the first line is cleared. The 9-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx, with no projected top date due to that cycle being in trending mode. Shorter term projections point to xxxx-xxxx. I have added another pick to the mining stocks swing trade pick list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades

Lee Adler

Last week 404 short term buy signals and 204 sell signals triggered, out of the 1454 stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. This was an increase on the buy side over the previous two weeks where the signals were roughly evenly divided. The rally finally appears to be broadening. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

After applying long term structure filters there were 44 buys and 9 sells. However, 21 of the buys were ETFs and almost all of those were fixed income related. So while there’s evidence of broadening, much of it is a mirage related to the bond market as opposed to stocks. Therefore, I don’t expect this to be easy pickins on the way up. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the screen output, I added 6 buys to the list because they appeared ready to emerge or extend emergent moves. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I added no shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As usual I’m adding new picks without protective stops. I’m closing out the last short as of Monday’s opening price. I am allowing most previous picks to ride without stops. I assume risk management through small position sizes and diversification. Your approach may differ. Non-subscribers click here for access.

List performance was lackluster again last week, mostly because I threw one bad apple into the barrel. The end result was an average gain of 0.2% on an average holding period of 8 calendar days. The week before that, the list had an average gain of 0.8% with an average holding period of 9 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have been searching for a big mover in vain in recent weeks. Since April, buy and hold the averages has been a better strategy than attempting to pick the best swing trades. The bullish action has been concentrated in a handful of huge capitalization stocks. I can’t predict when that will change. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Higher for Longer

Lee Adler

Cycle projections had pointed to a strong market this summer, but this is ridiculous. Here’s what they’re telling us now. Is it “Get on board or get out of the way?” Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller

Lee Adler

The combination of market sentiment that has gone insane and the coming deluge of Treasury supply have rendered the financial markets increasingly fragile. At the same time, that does not rule out continuation of the rally. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Survival of the bullish trend in stocks will depend on the willingness of dealers, hedge funds, and institutions to continue to increase leverage in order to support rising prices. They could use the coming crush of T-bill supply as collateral for new borrowing to buy stocks and bonds.

Or they may decide not to.

I know of no way to forecast when the willingness to constantly increase leverage to support the bull market will end. Nor do I think it necessary to do so. Normally we can see the signs of reversal via technical analysis applied not just to stock prices, but also to the liquidity measures that we track here. When the tide begins to go out, we should see the signs of it in both, in time to take the appropriate actions. As of now, we see xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx.

In the meantime, we must keep our radar up and running.

Here are the charts and analysis that show you how to view this and when to be ready to move. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Raises the Bar

Lee Adler

The pattern that has formed since April could be either a top or a consolidation. A rollover below xxxx would keep alive the top option. A breakout through xxxx would set up a high base with a measured move target of xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Summer’s Here, Dive In

Lee Adler

For a second straight week, more than half the stocks in the market generated short-term signals on Friday. 350 short term buy signals and 390 sell signals triggered, out of the 1426 stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. Like the previous week, they were again nearly evenly divided between buy and sell signals with a slight edge to the sell side. The market averages are climbing but many stocks are not. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

After applying long term structure filters there were 24 buys and 35 sells. In other words, less than 10% of the short-term signals that appeared to have the potential for bigger moves. I added 4 buys because they appeared to be ready to emerge from nice bases. I’ll give them a couple of weeks to swim or sink. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I added one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Chart picks tracking table and charts, below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Big Move in Superficial Intelligence

Lee Adler

The market shifted into trending mode last week when it looked set up for a short-term down phase. The advance could become open ended, with no projections to tell us where to look for a top, if it exceeds the revised 10-12 month cycle projection of xxxx. It looks and feels like an end stage blowoff, where only a few big stocks are driving the advance in the S&P. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Late July is prime time for the xxx-week and xxx month cycle xxxs. However, the 6-month cycle has been dominant and it points towards late xxxxxxxx for the ideal window for a cycle high. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Tax Collections Post Strong Gain in June

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections were strong in June. The US economy shows no sign of slowing. More importantly, strong revenue growth has restrained the growth of Treasury supply. Consequently, the US Treasury was able to continue T-bill paydowns through June, reducing the negative impact of heavy coupon issuance. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We were able to use the data to foresee that, and the fact that the impact would be bullish. We also knew that the paydowns would end in July and that the resumption of T-bill issuance that would result in renewed withdrawals from the Fed’s RRP facility. That’s because money managers would switch from holding Fed RRPs back to holding T-bills as they were issued. The decline in the RRP fund would resume. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Given where I expected the RRPs outstanding to be at the end of June, last month I guessed that the facility would run dry in November or December. But the RRPs never got as high as I expected as money managers took some of the cash from the T-bill redemptions and used it to buy stocks and bonds instead of depositing it in the RRP facility. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Now bill supply is starting off July at a gargantuan level. Putting 2 and 2 together suggests that the RRP slush fund will run dry in October, even at the current revenue growth rate. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Here’s the illustrated story of how we got here, and what it means for your trading and investment strategy. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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