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Author: Lee Adler

Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute!

I narrowed the final double check to Friday only this week since Friday’s hard selloff fully negated Thursday’s gains. The buys and sells were small in number and nearly the same on both sides with just 29 on the buy side and 30 on the sell side. Surprising. Had Thursday’s signals been included, the sells would have overwhelmed the buys.

After reviewing all the charts with final signals I added just one pick on the buy side (see table below) and no sells. The one buy was a gold stock, hardly a bullish omen. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Shape of the 6-month Cycle Bottom

The cycle picture is surprisingly sanguine in view of Friday’s selloff. It hasn’t done much damage yet. But it will if the decline continues on Monday.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Teeters Toward Disaster

Just when it looked like gold might be getting its act together it stalled again. It’s back in an inconclusive pattern, with xxxx now a critical line in the sand. Breaking that would lead to a target as low as xxxx or even the latest 9-12 month cycle projection of xxxx. On the other hand, if the price holds around xxxx, there would still be a chance that the trading range could resolve to the upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added another buy to the miners’ swing picks, bringing the total to 6 now.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised about the stuck market. No wonder it’s going nowhere. Flat is as flat does. Composite Liquidity is flat. There’s been just enough private credit creation, which is the same as money creation, to offset the Fed’s QT program. So total liquidity goes nowhere and stock prices are stuck, both over the past two months and since 2021. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It may feel like a big bull market since last October, but in the big picture, it’s nothing. What we are left with is a range of motion based on the usual market sentiment swings that happen regularly every 2-4 years. But those swings have limits. They are constrained by the liquidity trend.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The current composite liquidity picture tells us that we face a critical juncture in about two weeks. Here’s what the that picture  tells us about where stocks are headed next.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Reset Week Leaves List Uncomfortable

Using the new extended period filters, last week there were just 19 final buy signals against 67 sell signals. I looked at all of the charts and added none this week. The list is already loaded with buys, and I didn’t like the charts on the sell side. Either they had already been declining for too many weeks, or they were still in uptrends, with prices dipping to support. Neither setup represents ideal entry points for reduced risk, high reward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Market Needs a Pop Now

It needs it to confirm an important bottom. Otherwise. LTFO. This report shows you the setup to prepare you to make the right move.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Revising the Method, Better Picks

This week, I am starting a new screening mode which in theory should result in fewer false signals. In the interest of saving time, and generating fewer, but hopefully more reliable signals, I am dropping screens for cycle periods of shorter than 6 weeks. There were too many false signals, wasting too much of my time reviewing too many charts. Therefore, I have decided to focus on minimum cycle periods of 6 weeks and 10 weeks. I’m still requiring 2 signals during the week, including one on the last two days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Using the new method, there were 22 buy side charts to review, and 13 on the sell side. None of the sells were interesting. However, I liked 10 of the 22 charts on the buy side and am adding those to the list, as shown on the table below. Due to the late posting, I will begin tracking these as of the 2 PM print on Tuesday, September 5.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

One existing buy pick and five existing shorts hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 10 new picks, there will be 21 longs and 1 short on the list this week. The short is likely to be stopped out, which would leave the list 100% long, and heavy. Not a comfortable look, but I have to go with what I see. These charts look good.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. Picks added last week will remain without stops. I have adjusted stops on some of the older picks. I assume risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. However, because the list is virtually long only, this represents a high degree of market risk, given the principle of synchronicity.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was less successful than the prior week, with an average theoretical gain of 4% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. That compared with 5.7% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the previous week. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Classic BTFD Setup Or Not

This report has the answer and an idea about how to play it.

The 10-12 month cycle may have bottomed in May, with a high due in xxxxxxxxx. I like to focus on the six month cycle, which should be turning up in the near term. That is not quite confirmed, but it’s xxxxx. Any xxxxxxx xxxxxx should xxxxx it. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

With the 6-month cycle due to xxxx xxxxxxxxx soon, I’d place my bets on the xxxxxx here. It looks like a quintessential xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. The 6-month cycle down phase was xxxxxx. That’s often a setup that leads to xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in the up phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say

In the early August update we saw that withholding tax collections had gone flat. They have not improved since then. Collections remain weak. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

BLS jobs reports have begun to adjust to that fact with tepid growth reported for August, but the reality is much worse. Over time the numbers will reflect that. But we don’t know when. Nor do we know how the market will react to the news when that adjustment finally comes. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We do know however, that weak tax collections mean bigger deficits. Bigger deficits mean more supply. For the time being there are no increases scheduled in long term paper during the current quarter or Q4. The supply hits will come in the T-bills. And that often works in favor of stocks as market participants use the bills for collateral. It means more money and more leverage. Stock prices rise, but the system grows increasingly fragile as leverage increases. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We live in “interesting” times, and the longer this goes on, the more interesting it becomes. There’s opportunity, and there’s risk. This report should help you take advantage of the former and minimize the latter. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Gold Makes Case for Synchronized Low

The case for a 9-12 month cycle bottom and resynchronization of the 13-week cycle continues to build. A move xxxx xxxx would support that view and a xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx would confirm. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added three more buys to the miners’ swing picks, bringing the total to five now.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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