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Author: Lee Adler

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Buying The Lagging Dogs

Lee Adler

As the market has melted up the screens continue to generate far more buy signals than sell signals. Over the past 3 days there have been 145 charts with a second buy signal over the prior week and just 39 with second sell signals. These buy signals mostly came in the context of charts that had already been trending upward for weeks. In some cases, the signals indicated trends that appeared to be heading for a parabolic stage.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed all of the charts from the screen results. Forget the sell signals. The chart structures simply do not look viable as shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the long side I am not prepared to chase buy signals on stocks that are going parabolic. The exit signals are likely to come too late to snag profits. However, there were a surprising number of good traditional setups. These stocks are laggards. There are always late-stage movers in any big market move. So I chose to add 9 of these that will hopefully be in that class. I am adding these without stops as usual. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 5 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. Two shorts and one long hit their stops, and I had elected in the last report to close another long as of December 11. That left just 3 longs on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9 picks have been closed out in December so far. 7 were profitable. Including all 9 closeouts, the average gain was 5.3%, with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Tuesday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks, including both those still open and those closed out was 16.8%, with an average holding period of 26 calendar days. That’s up from the prior week’s average gain of 11.8%, with an average holding period of 24 days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

12/5/23 November was a good month with 10 of 12 closed picks registering gains. Closed picks had an average gain of 5% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Not Even the End of the Beginning.

Lee Adler

There are signs that this rally still has legs. There are also signs that the 4 year cycle is strengthening. The up phase ideally should last at least xxxx xxxxx xxxxx, interrupted only by xxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx in 2024. Here are the new price projections and likely time frames for expecting the top.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Dealers Stay Extended

Lee Adler

Tracking total Primary Dealer financing, as reported weekly by the New York Fed, shows us the approximate level of risk inherent in dealer positions. This analysis includes not only their outright positions, repo financing, but also net Treasuries borrowed, which is a proxy for short positions that hedge outright positions held. We then include dealer fixed income futures hedges. This combined view tells us whether they are long or short on balance. It also gives us a view of how leveraged they are. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The dealers have gone whole hog in terms of repo borrowing and maximum leverage since September. They first got there in mid-July. That was reversed by a period of deleveraging that lasted into September, accompanied by weaker markets. But then they came roaring back, pedal to the metal, with maximum leverage. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

At the same time, money has poured out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund at a breakneck pace as investor psychology turned more and more bullish. The Fed even followed the crowd this week, suddenly pivoting its guidance toward rate cuts next year, surprising the markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

$900 billion in cash has come out of the Fed’s RRP facility since September. Market participants have used that cash to buy not only T-bills, but also stocks and bonds. Combine that with the increased use of leverage by the dealers over that same period, and a temporary reduction in Treasury supply in December, and the stock and bond markets have been on fire. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This too shall pass, but the question is when. The Primary Dealer positioning data alone doesn’t tell us that, but it does give us an idea of the elevated level of risk. It suggests that when Treasury supply returns to normal, and the RRP slush fund runs dry, the markets could be in for a sudden and violent turn. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I initially estimated in prior reports that the RRP facility was heading toward zero in xxxxx, but as the pace of withdrawals has accelerated in the past few weeks, we adjusted that to xxxxx. The current data through Friday suggests that that’s still the target. But before that, Treasury supply will mushroom again xxxx xxxx , and will be heavy in xxxxxx. The ruts in the road should start to show up then. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

With the Fed’s pivot in rhetoric this week, the euphoria has been thick. Light T-bill supply until xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx should keep that going. Meanwhile investors and dealers have continued pulling money out of the Fed’s RRP facility at a breakneck pace over the past couple of weeks with no T-bill supply driving that. That means that instead of simply buying T-bills as they usually do with that cash, with the T-bills then being used as collateral for more repo borrowing, dealers and investors have gone to directly buying stocks and bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I see no reason for that to change over the next xx xxxxx. But a big Treasury coupon settlement in xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx should present a roadblock, with more supply in xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx giving an overleveraged dealer market a reality check. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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When the 10-year yield hit 5%, we recognized that it was time for a bond rally. It has come with a vengeance. Now it is time to start looking for signs of a bearish turn there as we head into xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Stocks should follow suit as investors wake up to the fact that the cash that fueled the buying frenzy will soon run out. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Bottom line, I would not be xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx but xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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It May Be Gold, But It’s Not a Given

Lee Adler

Short-term cycles have turned up, but longer cycle projections have already been hit. It’s not a given that those will be exceeded in the near future, although an attempt to at least test the high would be normal. Here are the targets and time frames for the current move. Meanwhile, I have added two picks to the swing trade chart picks.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – No Gifts for the Holidays

Lee Adler

The screens generated more buys than sell signals on Friday continuing a string that has lasted many weeks. It came after two days with a majority of sell signals during the week. But the numbers were small and remain small as the advance matures. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the week ended Friday, there were 28 charts with a second buy signal in a week, and 14 with a second sell signal. Friday’s raw totals were a surprising 31 to 29. Call it a virtual tie. One of the buys was a bearish gold stock ETF.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. Based on typically sloppy market behavior around the holidays I am reluctant to add any stocks to the list during this period. None of the charts was so compelling that I would add them in mid December when cross currents are even more prevalent than usual.

We came into last week with 10 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. 5 of the longs hit their stops. That left 8 longs and 2 shorts on the list to start this week. I have added or adjusted stops on all of them and will remove one as of Monday’s opening price. This is with the intent of closing out the longs as this rally ages.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 11.8% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s little changed from the prior week’s average gain of 11.9%, with an average holding period of 24 days.

Five picks have been closed out in December so far. 4 were profitable. Including all 5 closeouts, the average gain was 9.2%, with an average holding period of 28 calendar days.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Stock Market Dancing on the Ceiling

Lee Adler

There are a few reasons to think that the market should top out here. Should and will are two different things and there are more reasons to think that it’s going higher. High enough in fact, to xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Got There Fast But Race is Over

Lee Adler

Gold hit short-term cycle projections in the expected time window and has begun a consolidation/correction. This is due to last into  xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Then, ideally in xxxxxx xxxxx, there should be an attempt to test the high or make a minor new high on the 9-12 month cycle.   Our miner swing trade chart picks pulled back. I’m sitting tight.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – November Was a Good Month, List Still Mostly Long – Link Corrected

Lee Adler

The screens still generated more buys than sell signals on Monday despite the drop in the market. But as I reviewed the charts, the quality of those buy signals wasn’t great. They were late cycle, higher risk signals. On the other hand, there were still hardly any sell signals. For the week ended Monday, there were 47 charts with a second buy signal in a week, and just 9 with a second sell signal. Monday’s raw totals were 63 buys to 35 sells. On not one day last week did sell signals outnumber buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. I will add one on the short sale side, but with a limit price, and a protective stop in case it goes the wrong way. I added two on the buy side for the first time in 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 12 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. 4 of the longs hit their stops. The stops were too tight because a couple of them reversed and went higher. That left 8 longs and 2 shorts on the list to start this week. I adjusted stops on all of them. This is with the intent of closing out the longs as this rally ages. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 11.9% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s up from an average gain of 7.3%, with an average holding period of 20 days the week before. So we tacked on 4.6% last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

November was a good month with 10 of 12 closed picks registering gains. Closed picks had an average gain of 5% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days. These results are theoretical, based on the assumption of all cash trades, no margin, no options.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Tax Revenues and Liquidity are Crashing

Lee Adler

What the market doesn’t know, will hurt it.

The US economy slowed radically in November. It may have even contracted. We don’t need jobs data or economic survey data of any kind to know that. We know it from the November tax collection data. As of Friday, we had that data for the full month, and it is ugly. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It means that Treasury supply will get even heavier than the gargantuan amounts already forecast by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) for December and the first quarter of 2024. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, cash keeps gushing out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund. Market participants have pulled hundreds of billions in cash out of the Fed RRP account month after month, and especially in November. They used some of that cash to buy the flood of T-bills issued by the US Treasury, but less than usual in November. Because they used more than usual to buy longer term Treasury notes and bonds, and… oh yes… stocks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But as the Federal deficit grows because of weak revenues, that money will run out, as I pointed out last week. And it now looks at thought it will be gone before April Fool’s Day, which is what my guess was last week. At the current withdrawal rate, it will be gone within 3 months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, these market rallies have already sucked a lot of stock and bond bulls into the market. I don’t know that we can say that the markets are overbought, but I can say that we’re getting closer. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That’s because… Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Christmas Goose Temperature Nears Required Doneness

Lee Adler

The Christmas goose is in the oven. Its temperature is rising, and it’s almost done. Be careful. If the holiday guests like this market goose enough, they’ll eat too much. And then they’ll puke.

I’m thinking Christmas puke party. But first, there are Wall Street office parties to attend. All the spiked Kool Aid you can drink. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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