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Author: Lee Adler

Swing Trade Screen Picks – New Year R&R

Lee Adler

The list showed an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days last week. I had tightened stops with the intent of closing out trades. As a result, 16 of the 22 picks did get closed out. Six remain open for this week. I have added or adjusted stops on those, with the intent to close them out of the list if stops are hit.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed out in December, the average gain was 1.8% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days, that is, half a month. Since January 2022, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. I went off course in October, in particular, and November, and the list got hammered, but December saw a bit of recovery. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have tweaked the screening methodology over the past two weeks in hopes of avoiding a repeat of October-November, and for the purpose of hopefully improving overall performance, but there are no guarantees. As always, I attempt to recognize and respond to the need for tweaks. This is an ongoing experiment. You should make your own judgments accordingly. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, for the week ended December 30, applying the additional filters, there were just 2 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 10 with second or third sells. I did not like any of the sells as shorts. They were mostly rangebound noise type signals. Of the two buys, one had an impressive chart, and I added that one to the list (shown below), despite it being a biotech, a sector which I normally avoid. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new pick will start without a stop, as usual. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week, along with the six that weren’t, are shown on the table below. After adding the new pick, there will be 1 buy and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Here’s Where Short Term Signals Either Confirm Bullish Or Else

Lee Adler

The technical picture is a mixed bag this week. It leans bullish in the short run, but still toppy to bearish over the intermediate term. That could all change on Tuesday. Here’s what to look for.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Overloaded with Broad Market Shorts and Oil and Gas Longs

Lee Adler

Sticking to the method that I developed for this exercise finally paid off last week. The list returned to solid profitability for the week, after a frustrating quarter. For the week, the list showed an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of just 6 calendar days.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

But the market is still rangebound. Until that changes and there’s a trend breakout where we can hold winners for more than a millisecond, it will continue to be a dogfight in this theoretical attempt to extract meaningful swing trade profits week in and week out.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Holiday Wishes from Lee to You

Lee Adler

With the holidays here, I know that you and your fellow subscribers will be busy with more important things, so I will also take the opportunity for a little down time.

I will post a swing trade chart picks update this weekend. Then I will take a few days to relax and enjoy the season before resuming regular publication after New Year’s Day.

I wish you and your families the Merriest Christmas and Happiest New Year, Happiest Hannukah, Kwanza, and Festivus for the rest of us.

I want to thank all of you for helping me to have a very good year. Here’s to a good 2023!

Lee

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Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight

Lee Adler

The US Treasury has been pumping a gusher of cash into the market ecosystem in December, but Composite Liquidity remains flat. And that, my friends is bearish.

Subscribers, click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Treasury continues to need a hundred billion a month or so in funding that it gets by selling long term debt into the market. That constant new supply of debt that it sells in the market puts a lid on any attempted bullish moves in either stocks or bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The components of macro liquidity are still not conducive to being able to fully absorb that supply, and therefore put in a bottom to the liquidation of stocks. Liquidation of stocks will continue to be a necessary feature of absorbing the constant supply of Treasuries (not to mention increased debt issuance by other sovereigns).

In that context, every rally in stocks is a gift to short sellers. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As I discussed in the last review, it’s not useful in this environment to view the market as oversold. In this report I show you the charts that give the reasons for this view. And I propose both strategies and tactics to take full advantage of this environment. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the complete report.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

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The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend

Lee Adler

A couple of weeks ago the market averages came right to long term downtrend lines from the January peak. At that point, there were multiple signs that the rally would continue. We considered all the “what ifs,” including the one that entailed stopping dead at the trendlines and reversing. That seemed unlikely. But it’s what happened. It reaffirms the bear market for now. Now the cycle setups and conventional technical analysis indicate that there’s xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxxx for this downturn to xxxxxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles– Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles now appear to be xxxxx xxxxxxxx. The 13 week cycle appears to have the potential for xxxxxx xxxxxx. There are no projections yet but the cycle low is not ideally due until xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. That’s plenty xxx xxx xx more xxxxxxxxx to develop after short term cycles finish an up cycle due between xxxxx and xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycle lows are due xxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – The S&P 500 is now within a short term downtrend channel whose lower line starts this week at xxxx and drops by xxx points per day (PPD) to end the week around xxxx. The centerline now represents resistance. It drops from xxxx to approximately xxxx this week.

Should the S&P drop below xxxx early in the week, it would suggest a possible crash. The most significant support would be in the xxxx xxxxxx range. The next target below that would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – Last week’s selloff miraculously preserved the long term downtrend channels. Long term and 3-4 year cycle indicators are on the verge of xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Failed signals are normally strong trend continuation indicators. In this case, they would xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart  – The S&P turned down right at the long term downtrend channel line on the monthly chart. Long term momentum is back on the cusp of xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx a secular bear market if it happens. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate indicator remains short term xxxxxxxx and is near xxxxxxx intermediate term. The indications suggest a 13 week cycle xxxx xxxxxx and 6 month cycle xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Stops Killed but Many More Added

Lee Adler

By now you are well aware how much I hate stops. As a result, I had evolved a strategy of foregoing stops in the first week chart picks were placed on the swing trade list. Last week, my instincts told me to break that “rule,” and place stops on new picks both long and short.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

My instincts stunk, but miracle of miracles, the list is still ahead for the month of December. And I have come up with a strategy to maintain profitability and, at the same time, cope with the market’s increasing intraday violence.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen

Lee Adler

The metal is acting better than the miners, but that’s not saying much. Here’s what we have to look out for as a sign that things are about to get much worse. Also, what would signal a better outlook.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve

Lee Adler

I have long operated on the assumption that the US Treasury will follow the TBAC issuance forecast, with exceptions only in obvious emergencies. That assumption was well supported by the facts, over the many years that I’ve tracked this. That changed this month.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The Treasury has thrown a curve by suddenly reversing from the scheduled issuance forecast for T-bills to a program of big T-bill paydowns. That started about a week ago, and so far it’s set to continue for at least another week. It has already pumped cash into the accounts of holders of expiring T-bill, and will pump in even more over the next week. That money then goes mostly into the Fed’s RRPs, but some also fans out into other markets. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

This has all come as a surprise, and there’s no indication of when it will end. One thing is certain. It will end, because the Treasury is rapidly drawing down its cash with these paydowns. The Treasury has heavy outlays in February, and it will need to have a big pile of cash on hand next summer when the next debt ceiling problem rears its ugly head. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But while it still has cash and the will to support the markets, it will do so. That will allow the markets to continue these incredible monster bounces that we’ve seen of late. Trending higher, however, is another story. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Are the bounces playable? I would not get sucked into the idea that this is some kind of bullish reversal. It’s manipulation. It’s short term. Without the Fed pitching in, it’s not sustainable. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

So when will the Fed pitch in? This report gives the answer and tells what to do about it.  Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – 4 More Shorts. 4 More Shorts

Lee Adler

For the week ended December 9, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 52 with second or third sells. Interestingly, 7 of the sells were fixed income ETFs. I take that as a sign that the bond rally is probably finished. Which in the world of tight liquidity isn’t such great news for stocks either.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The residual momentum of the 174 to 18 win for the buy side 4 weeks ago was finally exhausted last week. There was a modest bulge in sell signals on Monday that was the extinguisher. That subsided later in the week, but it set a tone. 12/2/22 Often the results of such surges don’t begin to show up until the second week after the bulge in signals. Without any in-depth statistical analysis, my sense is that a signal surge like this has a shelf life of 3-4 weeks. Consequently, I think that time is up on this rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In my visual review of the screen output this week I leaned toward giving the benefit of the doubt to the sell side but I did find one interesting buy which I added to the list, as shown on the table below.
At the same time, I found 4 that I liked on the sell side, and added those as shorts. This week I elected to go with post entry protective stops for the new picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All previously open picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below (subscriber version). After adding the new picks, there will be 4 buys and 12 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, performance was positive, with an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. This was an improvement on last week’s +2.5% on a 2 week average holding period. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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