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Author: Lee Adler

Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth

Lee Adler

Federal withholding tax collections rose in October, breaking a string of 3 previous consecutive monthly declines. Guessing the BLS nonfarm payrolls manipulated number is always a crapshoot, but if it resembles reality at all, it will be an upside surprise. According to Dow Jones Marketwatch, the median economic guesstimate is +205,000, a drop from September’s 263,000. But the tax collections are way up from September. In reality, more jobs were added in October than September.

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If the BLS data accurately shows that, and again, that’s a coin flip, then the markets are in for an ugly surprise, as the Fed would have no excuse to pivot, pause, stepdown, or do whatever buzzword that Wall Street wants to sell you today. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Judging from the Pope Load Jaysus’s incantations under way at this moment, the Fedican doesn’t know what it wants to sell you. The encyclical said one thing, and Jaysus is now speaking in tongues about it. It’s all word salad, and meaningless. Because it’s the money that moves market trends, not the talk.

On the other hand, if the BLS number does not reflect this month’s reality and comes in weak, as expected, then the ensuing economic data will continue to come in stronger than expected and the market will face its Come to Jaysus moment in the days ahead.

On the bullish side, strong tax collections mean … Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Screens – Adding a Few Buys While Meat Grinder Chews Up Shorts

Lee Adler

It happens. Signals whipsaw, particularly in rangebound markets that I refer to as meat grinders. This has been one of those.

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The last set of sell signals was wrong. I went with them wholeheartedly, and digging out has proven to be problematic, with a string of losses that wiped out a month’s worth of gains. I’m still trying to right the ship here, but recovery has been elusive so far. So I am proceeding with caution in looking at this week’s output. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week ended October 31, there were 51 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday, Friday and Monday, and 39 with second or third sell signals I visually reviewed the charts, in both groups, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. While some of the shorts seemed to have a little running room, the setups weren’t ideal for big moves, so I demurred on those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 4 charts that I liked enough on the buy side to add to the list. I added those without stops. That will leave us with 8 picks, including 2 shorts and 6 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile I closed out 14 picks on the short side last week mostly by hitting stops with a few that I had set to trigger as of the opening price last Monday. The end result, including 3 picks left open, was an average loss of 4.9% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks close out last week along with open and new picks picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

 

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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A Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull

Lee Adler

The stock market looks even more oversold versus macro liquidity than it was in August. So, no surprise, it, and the bond market have both been rallying for a couple of weeks.

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But is the market really oversold? I don’t think so. Bull market oversold parameters are one thing. Bear markets have different parameters. Remember that it required massive liquidity growth just to keep stocks on a bull trend. That growth became insufficient to support bull markets in both stocks and bonds since mid 2020. That’s because the US Government was sucking up almost all of the Fed’s QE. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Now the Fed not only isn’t funding that, it’s pulling money out of the banking system that would have been available to support new Treasury supply. At the same time, it’s causing the Treasury to have to issue even more supply, so that it can redeem the Fed’s expiring holdings on which it now wants repayment. That causes forced liquidation of all asset classes, not just bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So in order for the market to be truly oversold in this new ballgame, how low must it go? We don’t know. I’ve made a shadow channel on the chart as a first guess. But it’s really a wild guess. We just don’t know how deep a selloff will result in enough of an oversold condition to generate a rally that lasts more than a month, let alone a major bottom. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

There are other ways we can look at this data that may be instructive, but for now, we’re even more in the dark than usual. Meanwhile, everyone who is guessing about a Fed pivot can go right ahead and be my guest. Because, as we all know, money moves market trends. Talk is only good for blips. Try to catch them at your own risk.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In this report, I update our regular look at the big picture liquidity indicators that will tell us exactly in what direction, and when, the markets will make their next big moves. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Why You Should Stay Skeptical of Bullish Technical Signs

Lee Adler

Yes, there are plenty of bullish signs on the charts. For the short to intermediate term, that’s ok. It’s good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like it. But it violates Rule Number One, the First Commandment, “Thou shalt not fight the Fed!”

Cue thunderbolt.

However, on this side of the Liquidity Trader stable, we focus on the technical, and it has gotten more bullish. Trust but verify, right?

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Cycles-   Despite the rally, the 10-12 month cycle is still due to start topping out xxxx xxxx, with the top phase lasting through xxxxxxxxx. The new projection of xxxx was already hit xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, at the beginning of the up phase. The current attempt should see resistance between xxxx and xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, 6 month cycle indicators xxxxxxx xxxxxxx indicated an up phase. The October low was xxxxxx xxxxx  for a low on that cycle, but perhaps the 6 month and 13 week cycles have merged into a hybrid of around xxx months duration. If so, the high would be due in xxxxxxxxxx, concurrent with the 10-12 month cycle high. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail  The market ran right to the top of the short term uptrend channel it had set up the week before. That top line rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. The magic number on FOMC day on Wednesday is xxxx. If they get above that, they’ll blow the roof off to xxxx by the end of the week. If they drop under xxxx, then we’re likely to see xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The breakout from the base that formed over the past month has a conventional measured move target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   A weekly close above xxxx would break the 6 month cycle line, signaling an up phase in that cycle, with an initial target of around xxxx on this chart. Failure to be clear of xxxx at the end of the week would suggest that the 6 month cycle down phase remains intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Trend resistance will begin November at xxxx, after it appears that the SPX will end October above expected resistance around xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate rose sharply last week. Indicator patterns have xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx intermediate term, and possibly xxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – Operation Extrication

Lee Adler

The stock market has been a rangebound mess for a month and a day. I call these periods meat grinders for obvious reasons. This kind of market environment has the potential crush swing trade strategies. I failed to recognize this one, and I got us caught in a vicious whipsaw last week. Forget post mortems. The only goal now is to make the best of a bad situation. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the week ended October 21, there were 56 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, and 59 with second or third sell signals. I visually reviewed the charts, in both groups, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. I was certainly not about to add any shorts to the list. I only liked two charts on the buy side and added those as shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The rest of the charts with buy signals had uninspiring patterns. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All open picks are shown on the table below with charts following. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Technical Signs Say Doubt This Rally

Lee Adler

Friday’s rally felt impressive on top of last week’s backing and filling. But the technical indicators haven’t kept up. That could all change on Monday, but as of Friday’s close, there were still plenty of reasons for skepticism.

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Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  The expected 13 week cycle up phase is xxxx xxxxx . But it’s not yet clear if it will have enough momo to xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 6 month cycle down phase. Monday’s action could go a long way toward answering that question.  The 6 month cycle projection has dropped to xxxx. I’ll respect the projection until the market clears resistance at xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail   A new uptrend channel centerline rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. They’d need to at least break that to signal an end to this phase of the rally. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a trend resistance convergence around xxxx. If cleared, they’d have running room for an immediate move to xxxx. If not cleared, then keep an eye on the downtrend line that drops from xxxx to xxxx this week. Likewise, dropping below xxxx would suggest a fast move to at least xxxx, and if that breaks, then to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Signs of an Intermediate Bottom in Gold

Lee Adler

Gold has made a double bottom that looks consistent with the expected 13 week cycle low due in this time window.

The gold mining stocks’ swing trade chart pick screens produced 26 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, versus zero sells. That means that 52% of the screened stocks produced buy signals versus none on the sell side. So I reviewed the 26 charts, expecting to finally find a few to list as buys for Monday morning.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Bears Beware, Treasury Buybacks Will Turn the Markets, Sooner Not Later

Lee Adler

Watch out! The US Treasury is now in the process of actively discussing buying back outstanding Treasury notes and bonds in an effort to bolster the collapsing bond market.

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As reported by Bloomberg:

The specific step taken by the Treasury was in its quarterly survey of primary dealers, released Friday in connection with the financing plan to be announced Nov. 2. The 25 dealers were asked for a detailed assessment of the merits and limitations of a buyback program for government securities. When the last financing plan was released in August, the department’s industry advisers on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee recommended further analysis of the issue. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-builds-creation-treasury-bond-174307311.html

The Treasury is holding $650 billion in its cash account at the Fed. This “rainy day fund” was set aside for just such occasions. And let’s not kid ourselves. When big government agencies start talking about doing something, it’s as good as done. This is going to happen, and when it does, it will push bond prices higher. And that will also give stocks a lift. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So the questions are when and how much. As to when, the big boys are publicly speculating that it will be early next year. But looking at the bond market crash, and knowing what we know about Primary Dealer positions, leverage, hedging, and the crashing bond market, it will certainly be xxxxxxx, perhaps xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, a couple of my hot takes on the Bloomberg piece. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Liquidity metrics for the US government debt market are approaching crisis levels after a year of steep losses for bonds caused by rising inflation and Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, and with the central bank simultaneously cutting some of its holdings, the situation may worsen. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concern about it last week.

Duh. Like I haven’t been reporting this for the past 2 years. And they’re just getting around to recognizing it. Geeze. They’re the rocket scientists. I just have a sixth grade education (I went to Temple) and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Taken together with Yellen’s recent comments and extreme volatility in the UK bond market in recent weeks, the query suggests “that the November refunding will likely show more progress toward opening a buyback facility,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. rates strategists said in an Oct. 14 research note. Strategists at Bank of America Corp. predicted a rollout in May 2023.

Are you kidding me? May 2023? The markets will have ceased to exist by then. I predict (in my best Amazing Kreskin voice) xxxxxxx xxx, or maybe xxxx xxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Under current circumstances, which include large federal deficits, a buyback program would have different purposes. They include adding liquidity to parts of the market most in need of it, and allowing Treasury bills to be sold in more consistent quantities, with proceeds used for buybacks of securities less in demand.

That’s just BS. The purpose is to stop and reverse the bond market crash, however temporarily. And we know that it will be temporary. The effect will end when they run out of cash. Which will be at whatever level of cash they feel they need to hold. We don’t know what that is. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Furthermore, once they get to that point, and the market has rallied because of their buying, they’ll start borrowing again to build up their cash account back toward their magic number of $650 billion. Once they start to do that, it would reverse the bullish effects of the buybacks. So prepare for a roll coaster ride over the xx-xx months following the beginning of the program. First bond prices will soar and yields will come down. Then prices will rollover, and finally crash again with yields rising in tandem. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

On the other hand, when the Treasury is finished buying, the Fed awaits to take the handoff. It has not only the possibility to return to QE, which is unlikely as a first step, it has the $2.2 trillion RRP slush fund that it could force back into the markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Who knows where the Fed will be in its QT program by the time the Treasury cash for the buyback program effectively runs out.? If the PCE and CPI numbers cool enough, they’ll probably stop QT. That looks likely to happen in the next xx months based on past lead time between changes in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and inflation data. I’ve covered that in a previous report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But I want to reiterate that it is not productive to guess and try to front run these things. Despite conventional wisdom that says otherwise, markets respond to money, not talk. Trade the charts, and invest based on actual macro liquidity flows. In that respect, we are not at a xxxxxxx xxxxx yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, the government has piles of cash that could be used to light a bullish fire under securities prices. One is the aforementioned Treasury cash account, and the other is the Fed’s money market fund of money market funds, its unlimited Overnight Reverse Repo (RRP) program. When they use those they could ignite bull runs that will look like bull markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Treasury and Fed money are demand side impacts. Then there’s always the issue of supply.  On the Treasury Supply front, keep in mind that the updated TBAC forecast for the current quarter and advance forecast for Q1 of 2023 will be released the week of November 2. They’ll give us a roadmap on what to expect for the subsequent 4½ months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In this report, I describe what’s likely in the months ahead, and suggest what you might do about it to defend yourself, or even take advantage. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side

Lee Adler

Over the 4 days since I last posted the swing trade screens update, the S&P 500 is virtually unchanged. The 8 picks I posted on Tuesday morning, all shorts, have gained an average of 5%. So there’s a possibility that we’re on the right track by being only on the short side here.

I better be, because I’m adding 8 more shorts to the list this week. And I have decided to extend the stopless period from the usual one week to two.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly?

Lee Adler

The market is poised to do something big this week. There’s the increased likelihood of a 13 week cycle upturn to give a little lift. But if they fail to get off the ground, a breakdown below xxxx could lead to a resumption of the crash.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-   The 6 month cycle remains in a strong down phase. It has a new cycle projection of xxxx, with a low ideally due in xxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxx xxxxxx. That should skew continue to skew xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xx So while an upturn in the 13 week cycle is xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, it shouldn’t xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail  The market confirmed an intermediate downtrend channel. The top line starts the week at xxxx and has a downslope of xx PPD to bring it near xxxx at the end of the week. They’d need to clear that to break the worst phase of this downtrend. Then they would need to clear xxxx to start a rally. More resistance would then await in the xxxx area. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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