Short term reaction rallies, and dead cat bounces notwithstanding, the intermediate outlook, and longer term, remain bearish, pending xxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That will follow the coming crash, not precede it. Anyone holding out for that xxxxxx xxxxxxxx is likely to get crushed, battered, steamrolled, destroyed, decimated, and cooked. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Holding and hoping is not a strategy. When Wall Street tells you not to panic, they may as well be deer frozen in the headlights of an oncoming train. Smart people don’t panic. They just calmly get the hell out of the way. Cash, despite it being depreciated by inflation, still has utility. When opportunity presents itself, you’re going to need it to take advantage.
This report will show you in charts and clear discussion, how we got here, where we are, exactly where the markets are headed, and what you can do about it to protect your assets, and even grow your capital in the dangerous, even deadly, months ahead. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in just 4 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 20 with more than one sell signal. Considering that we start with a universe of over 10,000 issues, these numbers are minuscule. It tells us that the market is extended on the downside and due for a respite from the selling.
But there’s no sign of it yet, other than the market seeming to be virtually sold out. There are just too few stocks that have made the turn to power a meaningful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 23 buy signals and 4 sell signals. These are, again, small numbers. The tilt to the buy side suggests that xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.
So as I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking, “Oh boy, those 4 buys must be something special.” I was chomping at the bit to get some longs on the list in preparation for a dead cat bounce, or more. Non-subscribers click here for access.
I looked at the charts and… meh. One was a well known air package delivery service that looked more like a short setup than a long. One was a biotech, which I avoid like the plague. One was a bakery that moves about a point a year. And one was a minor TV network and content provider. That chart looked good for maybe a 5% move. Not worth the risk here. Non-subscribers click here for access.
So that meant no buys. Then I looked at the 20 final sells. A couple of gold miners showed up, which was disheartening. I won’t short gold miners. I did find one chart that was interesting enough to add as a short. It was xxxx, with a limit price. As with last week’s short side picks, entry will be conditioned on trading at the limit price at some point during the week. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Last week I had 5 conditional short sale picks with sell limit entry prices. Two of them, xxx and xxx got hit, and I added those as shown on the table below. The other 3 never traded near their limit prices. Too bad. They would have been KA CHING, had I just done the usual market price at open. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Is there a lesson in that? Uh… No. If you’re looking for a curveball, and get a fastball instead, eh, that’s baseball. Credit to the pitcher. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week. Normally that includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Last week, there were no closeouts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.
The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Non-subscribers click here for access.
6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
This week we start with 5 picks plus the 1 conditional pick. The 5 existing picks are, once again, all short. The 1 new pick is also a short, so the list is still 100% short. I would expect that to change imminently, but I’ll follow the signals and evaluate the charts without bias, to the extent possible. Non-subscribers click here for access.
I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new pick has a limit entry price, it does not have a stop. I’ll add one next week if this pick is opened, based on hitting its limit price. Non-subscribers click here for access.
All active picks are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.
But bear market V bottoms end with different results than bull market V bottoms. The warning applies for a reason other than the one we are accustomed to.
Cycles- Short term cycles are due to bottom now. The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx is done. The projection on cycles of 6-8 weeks points to xxxx. So the most obvious scenario would call for a xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx now, followed quickly by xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Longer cycles are all pointed down, with lows xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx, with a 6 month cycle projection currently pointing to xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.
Third Rail Channels – The market would need to end this week above xxxx to get anything going on the upside. Conversely, an early week daily close below xxxx would immediately target xxxx, and if that did not hold, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.
Long Term Weekly Chart – The market broke critical support at 3700 last week. Trend support is around xxxx this week. If that breaks, the next target area would be around xxxx, then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Monthly Chart – The S&P 500 fell below a long term support trend convergence at xxxx. The next
support level is around xxxx, and below that, xxxx. Long term momentum has edged to a 15 month
low, but has not broken its uptrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate extended its crash to reach its lowest point since February 2020, during the Covid Crash. It’s the first time it has been below -2000 since then. This suggests that the market is within xxx to xxx months of a bear market low, but xxx xxx xxx xxxxx xxx. Even 1 month is enough time for massive damage. Non subscribers click here to access.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
Gold is now working on a test of the low. Obviously, it needs to hold, otherwise, this could get a lot worse over the next few months. For example, a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range.
The screens for short term swing trades were again terrible over the past week. Unlike the above screens, which evaluate current cycle status, these screens look only for new signals indicating a change of short term trend. Looking back over the past week, there were only 3 charts that made the cut on the buy side. Conversely, there were 15 Sells. That’s not a good ratio, although not as bad as the previous week when the score was 3 buys to 35 on the sell side.
The last step in the process is to eyeball the charts on the buy side. One of the 3 was a penny stock. I’m not interested. One of the other two (xxx) was a falling knife setup at support. Sorry, no interest. The other (xxxx) might be a base. Might not. It isn’t a terrible setup, but wasn’t solid enough to entice me in this environment.
Primary dealers have finally taken aggressive action to mitigate the losses in their bond portfolios. But it is too late. The damage is done, and the pressure will only get worse as the Fed pulls money out of the banking system and forces the Treasury to borrow even more money to pay off the Fed.
In everything we look at in the Primary Dealer positions and related data we see only stress and more stress. This is unfolding exactly as we expected. There are no secrets here. We knew all this was coming simply by watching the data and Fed policy as we have month in and month out. It only proves again and again, Rule Number One. Don’t fight the Fed.
Shockingly, the Dealers seem not to have followed the Rule, and now they’re screwed, and so is the world of investors. For those who can’t sell short, there are no good options. No pun intended.
Meanwhile, the Fed will need to raise its Fake Funds rate by 75 BP this week to keep up with the market. It’s already there as liquidity conditions tighten rapidly and dramatically.
The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 5 charts with multiple buy signals, and 118 with more than one sell signal. Of the 5 buys, 4 were inverse funds. Therefore the signals were actually bearish. And the final one was a precious metals ETF. Now, there’s a ringing endorsement for this market!
Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were just 5 buy signals, which, likewise, were all inverse ETFs and a gold ETF. There were 85 sell signals on Friday.
This is like the previous Friday, which also had an overwhelming preponderance of sell signals.
With 118 sells to choose from today, I found plenty of short sale candidates. The problem is that the market got way ahead of us this morning. So I whittled the list down from more than a dozen to just 5, and I will only start those if they hit a limit price equivalent their low price on Friday. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
I would not want to follow the usual procedure of just adding them as of Monday’s opening price. Even though they would be likely to work out well over a few weeks, there’s a good chance that Monday’s open will be near the low of the day. An ensuing face ripping dead cat bounce would put these deep in the hole to start if entered on the open. So the entries will be conditioned on trading at those limit prices at some point during the week. Then I’ll adjust on the fly next Monday.
The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.
Last week, the list had an average gain of 8.4% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.2% per week.
The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.
Five picks hit their stops last week. All were longs. The average gain on the picks that hit stops was 9.3%. Three picks remained open. All were shorts. I have adjusted stops on the open picks.
Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.
April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.
This week we start with 3 picks plus the 5 conditional picks. The 3 existing picks are all short (tank-gawd). The 5 new picks are also shorts, of course.
I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new picks have limit entry prices, they don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week to any that are opened based on hitting their limit prices.
All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.
All hell has broken loose overnight on Sunday night, Monday morning. The S&P futures are already trading at 3820, which is the bottom of the broad intermediate downtrend channel on this chart. The May low has already been broken on the futures. This market is going lower.
Cycles- If the market stays below xxxx this week, it would mean that the slopes of t he bigger waves are accelerating to the downside. The 6 month cycle lower edgeband will be at xxxx this week. Non subscribers click here to access.
The 13 week cycle should have a dead cat bounce at some point this week. Short term cycles are due to xxxxx xxxx this week. But any xxxxxxx should be followed by xxxx xxxxxx xxxxx over a protracted period. Non subscribers click here to access.
The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. There’s no 13 week cycle projection yet. The 4 week cycle projection points to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
13 week and 6 month cycle lows are ideally due in xxxxxxxxxxxx. Any rebounds before that should be xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. The downtrend must be xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Rule Number Two – The trend is your friend. Non subscribers click here to access.
Third Rail Channels – There are two critical support lines around xxxx. If the market breaks xxxx, this could turn into something the likes of which we have not seen since October 1987. Non subscribers click here to access.
Long Term Weekly Chart – The market is headed for a test of major support in the xxxx-xxxx range this week. Breaking that range would imply a long term measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate crashed last week. This breaks the previous short term and intermediate term bullish patterns. 6 month cycle measures are both firmly on the sell side. This will take some weeks to repair, and it is likely to get worse before that repair begins.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 18 charts with multiple buy signals, and 57 with more than one sell signal. On Friday alone there were just 20 buy signals and 113 sell signals.
Those two stats suggest a weak week. But as I pointed out in this week’s market update, the broad market indicators suggest that the up phase should still have a little life before it rolls over. With that context, I said that I’d be cautious about adding shorts.
With 57 sells to choose from, it was hard to resist picking short sales. There were a few that I liked. They’re probably a little early, but the risk reward potential over time seems good. So I chose 3 to add to the list as of Monday’s opening price, xx, xxx, and xxxx. Each would seem to have a bearish narrative as well. Not that that matters, but it enhances my comfort level with the choices.
Last week, the list had an average gain of 8% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.3% per week.
The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.
Last week’s overall performance was down from +11% with a similar holding period, in the previous week. We expected this.
5/31/22 We have to be careful though. We’ve seen previously that when the list has double digit gains, the stocks on the list have reversed sharply. So I continue to tighten stops to close out the pick at an opportune time and protect profits.
Three picks did hit their stops last week. All were longs. One had a nice gain, but it was canceled out by two losers. Five picks remain open. Four have gains. I have again adjusted stops on the open picks.
Meanwhile, picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That works out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. The 3 longs all came since May 16.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.
This week we start with 8 picks including the 3 new picks. The 5 older picks are all longs. The 3 new picks are shorts.
I’ve again adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age. The new picks don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week.
All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.
I may regret this headline when I go through the chart pick screens this morning, but at least we have a context. If a chart is ambiguous, I want to come down on the side of caution in terms or whether or not to short. At the same time, xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, xxx the individual setup would need to be very powerful for me to want to try to board the bull train at this stage of the rally. Besides, we’re already on it.
Cycles- Short term cycles are due to top out between xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxx, with projected highs of xxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. But it’s too early for the 13 week and 6 month cycles to top out and roll over. Ideally that would happen in xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxx.
Of course we don’t live in an ideal world, so we need to be alert for signs of an earlier peak.
Third Rail Channels – Potential intermediate term trend resistance starts the week at xxxx and drops by approximately 15 points per day to xxxx on Friday. If that’s cleared, then the target would be resistance around xxxx-xx. Below xxxx-xx, there’s nothing but air to around xxxx.
Long Term Weekly Chart – The turn in late May suggested an intermediate bottom. The rally is also what I call a “return to the scene of the crime,” where the market rallies back to the area of a technical breakdown. The rally could extend to xxxx without negating the negative implications of the breakdown. Any higher would call that into question.
Monthly Chart – The SPX stabilized above a long term uptrend line at xxxx at the end of May,. If it breaks , the target would be approximately xxxx. If it holds look for resistance around xxxx.
Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate formed a double peak with the March high. However, the number remains strongly positive; the short term pattern xxxx xxxxxxx, and the intermediate term pattern xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. The market would need to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Monday and/or Tuesday to xxxxxxxxxx short term xxxxxxxxx pattern.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
Lee Adler
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