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Author: Lee Adler

Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out

Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money growth has stopped in its tracks everywhere we look. Some indicators are breaking down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money growth has stopped in its tracks everywhere we look. Some indicators are breaking down.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Falling money supply is not bullish. Even flat money supply growth that we’ve seen for months should be bearish. In fact, if we look beneath the surface of the rally in the big cap market averages, most stocks are not participating in the big cap bull trend. I’ve covered that aspect of the market in the Technical Trader reports. Here the focus is solely on liquidity, and that is turning from yellow flags to red flags.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

In recent reports I had been recommending that longs could still be held. I now recommend… Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Here are the charts and analysis that show you why. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Ohh You’re a Holiday

List performance has been lackluster for the past two months and this week is the Fourth of July week. Seems like a good time to take a break. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Just to be sure, I reviewed 41 buy side stocks and 16 on the sell side that met both trigger and cycle structure criteria, and my reaction was meh! It looked like just more probable whipsaw setups. Given the macro TA, the count of 41 buys and 16 sells looks suspicious to begin with. I always go by the rule, Don’t trust, but verify. So I did. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So many whipsaws, so little time. That’s been the nature of this market. While the market averages crawled higher as a few mega cap stocks that drive the averages trended higher, most issues have been whipsawing in trading ranges. Going nowhere fast. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The problem is that that kind of action generates lots and lots of swing trade signals in my screens. With few breakouts following those rangebound, there are no big winners to carry the day. The system works, and is designed to work, when even a handful of stocks break out of those ranges following the signals. Lately, that just has not been happening. They’re staying stuck. And then the signals reverse quickly. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So last week the list’s average gain came to 1.3% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The week before the list had an average loss of 0.6% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days. In other words, going nowhere fast. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This weekend I was curious to see how many unfiltered short term buy and sell signals there were. The results were eye opening. Or eye watering. On Friday alone, 364 buy signals triggered, and 370 sell signals, out of the 1400 stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. In other words, more than half the stocks in the market generated short-term signals on Friday. And they were evenly divided between buy and sell signals. And this market is supposedly going somewhere? Non-subscribers click here for access.

I don’t think so. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So let’s sit out this week. I’m closing all theoretical picks except one as of Monday’s opening price. Enjoy your holiday.Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, I will sit back and watch the charts for a bit to see if the makings of a trend begin to coalesce. The macro analysis Magic 8 Ball says, “Not very likely,” in the short run. Maybe later in July, a few cycles should sync up for a late summer move. That’s what I’ll be looking for in the individual charts that the screens produce. The odds are that it won’t happen this week or the next. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There’s no stop on the one remaining open pick. Normally, risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. In this case, risk management is achieved by holding lots and lots of cash and just one small pick for a trade, not a big risk for trader-kind. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Chart picks tracking table and charts, below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Fourth of July Dud Could End the Celebration

The Fourth of July fireworks show will let us know if the second half stock market outlook will be a rocket, a flare, or a dud. Here’s how we’ll know. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More

Primary Dealers have reduced their fixed income portfolio hedging at the worst possible time. They are facing a deluge of supply in the months ahead, and they are not well hedged. They have reduced leverage a bit, but this doesn’t appear to be enough to help them through the supply tsunami that is headed their way. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Here’s what this means for stocks and bonds, and what you should do about it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

When Gold Breaks Out

The range parameters have held since the last update, and there’s no indication that a breakout is imminent. Here’s what to look (out) for. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It

The market is doing its best to get us to go sit it out, but you gotta be in it to win it, so I’m adding a few shorts this week. With great trepidation, I might add. There’s just not much conviction here, since the screen output hasn’t been productive in many weeks.

Maybe that’s a good sign. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average loss of 0.6% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days. That compares with a loss of 1 % with an average holding period of 13 calendar days, for the prior week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Screens of Friday’s closing price charts resulted in 47 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus 82 on the sell side. That compares with 21 buys and 136 sells the week before. These sell side tilts have been going on for a month, without results.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just 6 of the preliminary buys qualified on Friday, while 31 of the sells did. That’s a lot of sell signals. I picked a few of those to add to the list, but no buys this week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Five picks hit their stop prices last week. Dropping those leaves just 5 picks, including 1 buys and 4 short on the list for this week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted stops for the remaining existing pick. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, see table of picks and charts in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed in May, it was a losing month. Picks closed out during the month had an average loss of 0.1% and an average holding period of 22 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Weak Trend Status Quo

This is a narrowly based rally, that shows no sign that a break is imminent. But it is fragile. Hedging would be ….. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man

Repo data has been an important part of our liquidity analysis for many years. But the data had shortcomings. It showed only the banking system data, which is not the entire repo market by far. And it was only somewhat timely, offering a weekly snapshot with a 10 day lag. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have found something better. It’s daily data on the entire repo market, current through the last business day before yesterday. No surprise, it correlates with the trend of stock prices and even shows evidence of divergences that precede changes of stock market trends. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

The current data through Monday supports the stock market rally, but only up to a point. A negative divergence has developed since January. A breakdown from here could be a bearish signal for stocks. A breakout would be bullish confirmation. They’re not at either point yet, but it’s now week to weak. Pun intended. We’ll keep an eye on it. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

It’s a similar story from the other drivers. There’s enough liquidity to keep the rally going for a bit longer. But the sands of time are falling to the bottom of the hourglass. Long for now, but not for long, looks like the watchword for this market. Tick tock. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

This report illustrates each component of the liquidity data to give you a complete view and deeper understanding of the dynamics that drive market trends so that you can invest and trade with greater confidence. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Swinging and Missing

List performance was poor again last week. I’ve been in a slump lately. I’m not seeing pitches well, and my swing timing is a little off.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Trading is a tough game. The pitches that we see are hard and often deceptive. The game has sped up. The season is long. As we age, our vision and reflexes aren’t what they were when we were younger players. I have confidence that by sticking with proven swing mechanics, we’ll eventually start making good contact and hitting home runs again. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, in this week’s games… Non-subscribers click here for access.

Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average loss of 1% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days. That compares with a loss of 0.6 % with an average holding period of 12 calendar days, for the prior week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Screens of Friday’s closing price charts resulted in 21 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus 136 on the sell side. That compares with 20 buys and 82 sells the week before. Do I detect a trend? Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just 3 of the preliminary buys qualified on Friday, while 8 of the sells did. Not many, either way. After reviewing the charts, I took the pitches and didn’t swing. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, see table of picks and charts in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed in May, it was a losing month. Picks closed out during the month had an average loss of 0.1% and an average holding period of 22 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Last Gasp of a Dying Uptrend

Cycles still appear to be in gear to the upside in the context of a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx with a bit more xxxxxxxxxx.  The 10-12 month cycle still has a projection of xxxx indicating a bit more xxxx before it’s over.  The 13-week cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due June xx. A 4-week cycle projection now points to xxxxx, ideally due xxxxxx xxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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