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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

June Federal Tax Data Shows Fed Has No Excuse – Chart Corrected

Lee Adler

NOTE: I neglected to insert the updated Withholding Tax chart in the report posted last night. The data and analysis was complete and update. Here’s the report with the updated chart. 

The tax data shows that the market rationale for the rallies in stocks and bonds is just plain wrong.  Here’s the proof, and what to do about it.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are Off The Charts DANGEROUS

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Thursday, June 27 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Everything Looks Great When the US Treasury Pumps Cash Into the Market

Lee Adler

The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities that are being redeemed. That, in turn, continues to stoke demand for longer dated notes and bonds. It has also contributed to the demand for stocks.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, June 25 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Lee Adler

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.”

But then I said that the picture changes radically in Q3. And that has not changed. Here’s what’s happened so far, what’s likely for the third quarter, and then the big change that’s coming. Having this information will help you to continue to take advantage of the market’s big move, and to be ready for when and how it’s likely to change.

Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

One Month Free Trial and 90 days risk free if you subscribe today! 

Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.  Join by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Saturday, June 22 and get the first month free. Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

 

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Federal Budget Data is a Bad News-Bad News Story

Lee Adler

Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the markets and why you need to get ready for a delayed shock reaction.

Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

One Month Free Trial and 90 days risk free if you subscribe today! 

Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.  New subscribers can join by 5:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, June 14 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Short Term Positive Liquidity, Long Term Scary

Lee Adler
View this and all charts full size, full resolution in the report.
View charts full size and full resolution in the report.

The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know.

Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 5 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, June 12 and get the first month free!

Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Federal Tax Data for May Says Beware of Jobs Surprise

Lee Adler

Tax collections suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market.

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One Month Free Trial and 90 days risk free. 

Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. 

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, June 4 and get the first month free!

This offer applies to first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date. The first 90 days from initial signup are risk free for first time subscribers.

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Fed Balance Sheet Pressure Is Building But Camouflaged

Lee Adler

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank sharply over the past 4 weeks. So it’s no surprise that the stock market rally sputtered. But what’s going on out of view could make things much worse later this year.

Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 5 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, May 28 and get the first month free!

Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Primary Dealer Positions Bulging, Bloated, and Overstuffed, Could Explode

Lee Adler

Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous.

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Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, May 22 and get the first month free!

Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Ticking Time Bomb In The Treasury Market Could Blow Up The World

Lee Adler

The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s why.

Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Monday, May 20 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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