The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but bank lending for speculative purposes has soared. That is supporting financial asset price inflation. That’s dangerous. This report shows how it works, and why you should be concerned.
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Real time federal tax receipts and other real time data bely the current bullish narrative. Here’s why the Fed won’t ease policy and why the rally won’t end well.
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The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us about why that could be a problem. And here’s how you can protect yourself and even take advantage of the fallout.
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Macro liquidity growth has slowed to a crawl. The Fed and its cohort major central banks are a negative factor on balance. But runaway financial market speculation is driving a big surge in bank lending to finance securities purchases, and that’s providing self-sustaining liquidity. But debt driven trends eventually break badly. This report looks at the keys to showing when this trend is reversing and gives you a strategy for maximizing the current trend.
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Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader is now fully operational. After 18 years, The Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader is now Liquidity Trader. So please put Liquiditytrader.com in your favorites. Meanwhile, you can still read Lee’s Free Thinking and other great independent thinkers, at the Wall Street Examiner.
To mark this official launch I am extending the prelaunch special offer until 11:59 PM Pacific Time, Tuesday, March 19. Subscribe now for 20% off posted prices. Renewals will be at the discounted rate. Try Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! This offer ends March 19.
The order forms show the regular price. Your payment will be adjusted upon order completion. Thank you in advance for trying the service!
Lee
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Meanwhile, instead of liquidating other assets to raise the cash to buy new Treasury supply, dealers and other buyers have used up cash and added to their leverage. The rally has been pushed by a massive increase in leveraged speculation. This leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable. Here’s what to look for and how to trade it.
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The BLS reported a very weak jobs number this morning. Treasuries are rallying again. How the BLS got that number in the face of surge in withholding tax collections in February is a mystery, but the likely outcome isn’t. Here’s why it’s bad news for both bonds and stocks, along with a recommendation what to do about it.
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Federal withholding tax collections went through the roof and excise taxes had solid gains in February. Here’s what this means for the economic data ahead, for the markets, and for your portfolio strategy.
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The ECB created a monster, and now that monster is chasing it. This report paints the gruesome picture, spells out the implications for you as a US investor, and tells you what to do about it.
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The Fed announced at its January meeting that “they panicking” (apologies to Trading Places) and that neither rate increases nor the shrinkage of the balance sheet are on autopilot any longer. The Fed says it will adjust both as the economy and “financial conditions,” aka the stock market, dictate.
So far, neither has given them an excuse to loosen, although the economic priesthood and the Wall Street captured media have repeatedly characterized the economy as “softening.” Softening is not the same as shrinking. That’s what the Fed is looking for. Although mostly it’s worried about a stock market decline. No sign of that lately either.
The question before us now is whether the Fed’s change in approach will pre-empt the crash I’ve been expecting. Here’s the answer, and I show you exactly why that is.
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Lee Adler
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