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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Here’s Why Fed Rate Cut Would Be Catastrophic

Despite the noise about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates this week, the reality of the market says otherwise. If the Fed does cut, it could lead to disaster.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are a Black Cloud Over the Market

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Dealer positions look scary. Here’s why, and what to do about it to protect yourself, AND take advantage!

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Beware of these Warning Signals on Treasuries

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Warning signs abound that a cataclysm lies ahead for the Treasury market. It will also infect stocks.

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Federal Revenue Growth Gives Fed No Excuses, But Economic Strength May Be an Illusion

Federal Deficit Chart- Availble full size in the reportFederal tax collection data for March showed modest economic growth but continuing wide Federal budget deficits. An uptick in nominal revenues has reduced Treasury issuance for the time being. But the revenue windfall will be counted and in the books by mid May. After that, things will change. Here’s what to expect and a recommended investment approach.

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Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Treasury Supply Trend. See full size chart in the report.

Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.

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Beware of Surprises as Withholding Taxes Stay Strong In March

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in reportBeware! March withholding tax collections were strong, but excise taxes were weak.
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As Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks, Speculative Bank Lending Soars

The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but bank lending for speculative purposes has soared. That is supporting financial asset price inflation. That’s dangerous. This report shows how it works, and why you should be concerned.

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Federal Tax Receipts and Other Real Time Data Bely the Current Narrative

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in reportReal time federal tax receipts and other real time data bely the current bullish narrative. Here’s why the Fed won’t ease policy and why the rally won’t end well.

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These Charts Show How Primary Dealers Create Huge Risk as They Get Longer and Longer the Bond Market

Full sized chart in report. The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us about why that could be a problem. And here’s how you can protect yourself and even take advantage of the fallout.

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Macro Liquidity Indicator Charts Show Rally Not Long For This World

Macro liquidity growth has slowed to a crawl. The Fed and its cohort major central banks are a negative factor on balance. But runaway financial market speculation is driving a big surge in bank lending to finance securities purchases, and that’s providing self-sustaining liquidity. But debt driven trends eventually break badly. This report looks at the keys to showing when this trend is reversing and gives you a strategy for maximizing the current trend.

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