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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

In the Goldrums

As gold breaks major support, we get new price projections for both the metal, and the mining sector index. They’re not pretty. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Gold Won’t Hold

There are indications of a short term bottom as gold tests the July low. But intermediate indicators say it won’t hold. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Gold Miners Swing Picks

While we wait for gold to do something, there’s action in the mines. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Over the past week the gold and silver mining stock screens yielded 24 charts with a second or third short term buy signal and just 4 with more than one sell signal. So I was expecting to come up with some buys. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review of those 24 with multiple buy signals,  I did. They were as follows: xxx, xxx, xxx, and, xxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

All were still in major downtrends but had good potential to complete big reversal patterns. The remainder of the 24 were too close to resistance in their downtrends to have the appearance of favorable risk/reward for a trade at this stage. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The charts of the 4 stocks are below. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Still Waiting for Gold Dough

Still waiting for confirmation of an upturn in the 9-12 month cycle. Until that happens, there’s still downside risk, with limited upside. Here’ are the parameters to watch.

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Mining Picks- As a result of the pullback, and my placement of tight trailing stops, all open picks hit their stops and were closed off the tracking list. The result was an average gain of 12.9% on an average holding period of 3½ weeks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I had a bias of expecting to see a few short term buys on visual review of the screens. But when I ran the screens, there were just 2 charts with repeat buy signals and 9 with repeat sell signals. This is better than last week when there were 3 buys and 21 sells, but it’s still not fertile picking grounds for buy side trades. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

These two negative weeks followed a preponderance of buy signals for the prior 4 weeks. Therefore, for now, I consider this a normal corrective phase. However, Thursday alone had 2 buys and 3 sells, not a ringing endorsement of a short term bullish outlook. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review, the two buys did not look at all bullish, so we’ll be sitting out this week with no picks. We wait. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses. See disclaimer. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Mildly Bullish Outlook for Gold Holds

Still not enough evidence to overturn my bottom call from two weeks ago. Holding 4 miner longs as swing trades.

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Over the past week the sector generated 3 charts with repeat buy signals and 21 with repeat sell signals. Not a good sign, but these are short term signals. This follows a preponderance of buy signals for the past 4 weeks. Therefore, for now, I consider it a normal corrective phase. And Friday alone had a much better look with 12 buys and only 2 sells. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review, I did not like any of the 3 stocks that were buys, so I stood pat on the 4 picks already on the list. All held gains, with an average gain of 14.9% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.  I adjusted the stops to trailing stops. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses. See disclaimer below the charts. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands

There’s not enough evidence for the umpires to overturn last week’s call on the field, but neither was there enough to confirm. Therefore the call stands.

Until it doesn’t. Meanwhile, gold is making progress toward completing a 9-12 month cycle low. There’s still risk of a pullback toward a test of the lows over the next xxxx xxxxx  xxxxx or so. On the other hand clearing xxxx should get things rolling toward xxxx.

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Over the past week the mining stock sector generated 23 charts with repeat buy signals and still 18 with repeat sell signals. The mining stocks lagged the sharp turn in the metal. But there has been a preponderance of buy signals for the past 3 weeks, so some reduction in buy signals and increase in sell signals is to be expected. The fact that there’s still a preponderance of buy signals is a positive sign. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review, I selected just one chart to add to the list. xxx. I’m not enamored with the idea of buying stocks that are still in downtrends, even if there are hints of reversal. For now, I’m only comfortable with the level of exposure we already have on this list. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Gold Has Made a Bottom

The price has broken out of a tight 3 week reverse head and shoulders. The implied measured move target is only xxxx. Cyclicality would be favorable for an additional advance from there, after consolidation. This outlook is not carved in stone. There’s still a risk of a lower low on the 9-12 month cycle. To confirm the bullish view, the price needs to be above xxxx by the second half of August.

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Over the past week the mining stock sector generated 14 charts with repeat buy signals and just 3 with repeat sell signals. That’s a good performance, especially after the previous week when there was also a preponderance of buy signals. It’s not an across the board thrust, but we’ll take what we can get. This is the first sign of a bottom, so signs of tentativeness are to be expected.

Upon visual review, I selected two charts to add to the list this week, XXX and XXX.

The two picks added last week are up an average of 3%.

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Catch a Falling Knife

Gold’s short term cycles have entered up phases but they haven’t shown anything so far and aren’t likely to. The longer swing cycles have yet to indicate that they’ve bottomed, and they still have lower projections. There’s still risk that they’ll be reached over the next month or two.

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Over the past week the mining sector generated 19 charts with a second or third buy signal on Monday, and no multiple sell signals. Sounds good, right? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Uhh…. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This market reminds me of the old Perry Como song. “Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket. Never let it stab your leg.” Bottom picking for counter trend rallies in bear markets is not my favorite pastime. But given that any bottom could lead to a big rally, I will put one big toe in the water, and steel myself for its amputation. So, from my bottom picking perspective, I’ll go with XXX, tracking it as of the opening price on Tuesday. And, what the hell, XXX has room to pop, with nice positive divergences in the indicators, so I’ll add that as well. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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More Bad News Ahead for the Golden Boys

The 6-7 week cycle low is overdue and the 4 week cycle low was due yesterday, but everything else says there’s more bad news ahead.

The mining stocks look no better. For the past week, there were just 2 charts with final buy signals after earlier ones, and 4 with  a final sell after earlier sell signals. Those low numbers suggest no thrust, but the downtrend is well established. In the week before there were 22 with multiple sell signals.  Here’s what I’m doing now.

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Gold’s Worst Projections Are Happening

Last week’s warning signs came to fruition. Here’s how much worse it’s likely to get. Once that happens, it should be a good buying opportunity.

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For the past week, there were 8 charts with multiple buy signals. There are 22 with multiple sell signals. The 8 buy signals were mostly on Friday, and they got soundly reversed on Tuesday, when there were just 3 buys and 22 sells.

The patterns look desperate. Is it a capitulation? Too soon to say, but I’m staying away, for now.

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