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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Holiday Wishes and Publication Schedule

I want to wish you and your family Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, and Happy Festivus, the holiday for the rest of us.

I will celebrate by looking around Warsaw for an open Chinese restaurant where I can get takeout. I won’t be eating in this year (I wonder why).

Today at Malbork Castle, Malbork, Poland
Today at Malbork Castle, Malbork, Poland 12/22/21 

I want to thank you especially for allowing me the privilege of doing this work that I love, for you for the past 21 years. Whether you’ve been a subscriber for the past 21 days, but especially if you’ve been around for most or all of those years, your interest and confidence in me is a gift that I always appreciate! I hope that you enjoy and learn nearly as much from my reporting as I do from doing it.

I know that you will probably be enjoying the coming days with your families and hopefully not paying much attention to the markets. I’ll use that opportunity to take a break myself over this week. There will be no Liquidity Trader, Technical Trader, or Gold Trader posts between now and New Years weekend. Regular publication will resume in the New Year, with a bevy of reports. So be sure to stay tuned for that.

If anything strikes me as noteworthy over the coming week, I’ll throw up some quick comments on the Capitalstool message board and in my Twitter feed.

So to you and yours, Happy Holidays! See you in the New Year!

Lee

PS. I apologize for the fact that if you subscribe to more than one of the services, you have gotten this email once for each of them.  Sorry for clogging the inbox! 😁

Gold Shows Every Sign of Doing This Now (and Forever)

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Gold shows all the signs of going nowhere fast. Cycles are juxtaposed and the price is locked in a tight range. The 13 week cycle is due for an upturn in the next xxxx (in subscriber version), which would be conducive to a run to at least xxxx, but it would need to clear xxxx to get a real bull move started.. A breakdown below xxxx would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around xxxx.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – The 13 week cycle appears to have joined shorter cycles in an up phase. It’s ideally due to last 6-10 weeks but is due to remain flat. There’s no sign yet that longer cycles will turn xxxx (in subscriber version), .  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version). The target could be xxxxxxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – There are 11 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, in a change from recent weeks, there were 3 charts where I liked the setups. I’ll start tracking them as buys as of this morning’s open.

New Buys: xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, (in subscriber version).

There were no open picks over the last week as the last one had been stopped out. Picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Gold Trader Publication Schedule Note December 21, 2021

This report will be posted on Wednesday morning, December 22, instead of Tuesday this week. I’m  traveling today.

See you Wednesday! And if I don’t see you before, Merry Christmas and happy holidays! Thanks for your support!

Lee

Gold Hangs By a Thread on the Eve of Destruction

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Weak short term cycle up phases are in danger of early breakdowns  The 13 week cycle is due to remain in a down phase for xxxx (in subscriber version), with a projection of xxxx (in subscriber version). A breakdown below xxxx  would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around 1650.

Gold begins December below a couple of key trendlines on the monthly chart. It would need to end the month comfortably above xxxx to reduce the risk of another slide that could carry into the xxxxx. Conversely, if it ends the month above xxxx, that would be a bullish sign.

As for the mining stocks, The short cycle up phase is in danger of an early breakdown, as the 13 week cycle down phase targets xxxx – xxx (in subscriber version).

There are 13 buys and 3 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, once again, these buy signals did not impress me as anything more than a dead cat bounce that would probably fizzle out. I decided to wait for better setups before re-entering. This may require some patience.

The last remaining pick from the most recent group hit its stop over the past week and was closed as of the stop price with a loss of 4.4%. Previous picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 13.4% on an average holding period of  48 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Reason for Hopeful Pessimism on Gold

It’s not great, but there are benchmarks that would signal that this pattern may be turning bullish.

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Short term cycles have turned up. The 4 week cycle projection is a nice target, but there are no guarantees here. It would certainly be helpful to the bigger picture if it is reached. The 13 week cycle still has some vulnerability for 3-6 more weeks. A breakdown below xxxx (in subscriber version) would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around xxxx.

Gold begins December below a couple of key trendlines on the monthly chart. It would need to end the month comfortably above xxxx to reduce the risk of another slide that could carry into the xxxxx. Conversely, if it ends the month above xxxx, that would be a bullish sign.

As for the mining stocks, the shortest cycles rebounded due to the rally of the past 2 days, but that wasn’t enough to keep the 6 month cycles from falling to the sell side. 13 week cycles remained at more than 90% on the sell side. With 6 month cycles now negative and not yet extreme, any bounce xxxx xxx xxxxx xx xxxxxxxx (in subscriber version).

There are 34 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. I looked at the charts, and these buy signals did not impress me as anything more than a dead cat bounce that would probably fizzle out. I decided to wait for better setups before re-entering after closing all but one of the picks that had been on the list in previous weeks.

The 7 picks closed out from November 2 through December 2 had an average gain of 9.9% with an average holding period of 43 calendar days. Not bad considering how uneven the performance of the sector has been.

1 pick hit its stop over the past week and was closed as of the stop price with a gain of 23.4%. That left just one pick on the list, hanging on with a loss of 1.2%. I’ve tightened the stop on that one.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Gold Trader Publication Schedule Note

This report will be posted on Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday this week. I will be on the road all day. I usually travel by train, where I can get the report done. But with the pandemic raging here in Poland, on this trip I have driven.

Thanks for your patience. See you Wednesday!

Lee

Here’s What to Key on With Gold on the Brink of Failure

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Last week was bad, no doubt about it. But it wasn’t a catastrophe yet. This report tells you the key benchmarks to watch to let us know whether this will turn out ok, or not, for gold and the miners.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Reason to Stay Optimistic on Gold

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The 13 week cycle up phase aborted early and the pullback has negated the base breakout. When that happens there’s usually a recovery before a second high that confirms the top. I want to remain optimistic that this will only result in a mild correction/consolidation. As long as the 10-12 month cycle indicators continue to signal an up phase, that’s where I’ll give the benefit of the doubt.

Here’s what the current up to the minute charts say about that (subscriber version).

The HUI mining stock index 6 month cycle is probably topping out. But with the 10-12 month cycle due to stay in an up phase for at least 12 more weeks, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the 6 month cycle down phase playing as a consolidation, rather than deep decline. The parameters to watch on that are here. (subscriber version).

Today, there are 2 buys and 13 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This followed 2 buys and 6 sells last week, on the heels of a flood of buy signals the week before. That suggested the possible onset of a new upleg.  Now we’re in a correction.

Could it be something worse? Maybe, so I’m putting stops on all picks, but with a little wiggle room to allow for a little more dipping and then hopefully recovery. I’ll see on the recovery if it’s too weak, and close out picks where the charts call for it. But for now, I want to give them time to allow for recovery.

Current open picks got crushed with the sector as a whole, ending the week with an average gain of just 14.1% on an average holding period of 41 calendar days. That was down from an average gain of  21% with an average holding period of 34 calendar days.

I didn’t see any charts I wanted to add this week. I will stick with existing picks, with stops added as shown on the table.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

Subscription Plans

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Gold Breaks Out, Sets New Targets, Miners Move

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Gold has broken out of a 5 month base, with a measuring implication of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version). There’s resistance at xxxx but cycle projections now point to the xxxx-xxx range.

The HUI mining stock index has broken out of a reverse head and shoulders bottom. The upsloping neckline results in a measured move target of xxxx (subscriber version). There’s not enough data for a 10-12 month cycle projection yet, but if these gains stick, the implied projection would be at least xxxx-xxx .

Today, there are 2 buys and 6 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This followed a flood of buy signals the week before. That suggested the possible onset of a new upleg.  Now we’re in the momentum follow-through stage after the initial surge of buy signals.

Current open picks and one that was sold last week, had an average gain of +21% with an average holding period of 34 calendar days. That compared with +16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days the week before.

I didn’t see any charts I wanted to add this week. I will stick with the ones that “brung us,” with no stops. I’ll close them out of the list when their charts turn less favorable. For now, I give the benefit of the doubt to the upside.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Gold Cycle Projections Hold Good News

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There’s a lot of good news in the cycle projections table (subscriber version). Cycles are in gear to the upside and projections point higher. Now those projections just need to come to fruition. A breakout through xxxx (subscriber version)  should get the ball rolling uphill. Failure to do so within the next couple of weeks would not be good.

Gold made a little progress over the past week but it still needs to clear xxxx (subscriber version) to break out of the trading range. That would essentially end the risk that this year-long consolidation would break down and lead to another downleg in a bear market. Until that upside breakout, the outlook would continue to hold that risk.

On the long term chart of the gold stock index, the neckline of a potential reverse head and shoulders bottom is now at xxxx (subscriber version). Clearing that would be bullish. Failing, and subsequently falling back under xxxx (subscriber version), would be bearish.

Today, there are 24 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a big departure from the small numbers of signals in recent weeks, suggesting the possible onset of a new upleg. I expected to see some charts with good setups but I found only two that I liked enough to add to the list, xxxx  and xxxx (subscriber version). The rest were still below big resistance.

Current open picks and one that was stopped out last week, had an average gain of 16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days.  I will drop (xxxx) as of the opening price on Tuesday and track the two new picks also as of the opening price on Tuesday.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

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