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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Gold Looks Sick

The expectation of one last high before summer has been pre-empted. Longer term indicators look hurt too.

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Sell Gold in May and Go Away?

I don’t expect much upside in the near term but the outlook should brighten later this year.

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Four Year Cycle indicators remain bearish. A cycle low is ideally due xxxx-xxxx (non-subscribers, click here for instant access), but normal variance would allow for an upturn at xxxxx xxxx. However, there’s still risk of a final decline until momentum gives a clear buy signal. A down week this week would break the 6 month cycle moving average with bearish implications for the next xxx-xxx months. Conversely, a weekly close above xxxx would be bullish, particularly if 3-4 year cycle momentum breaks its downtrend. Such a breakout would signal a likely move to xxxx as the next target, with a conventional measured move target of xxxx-xxxx (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

Swing Trade Screen Picks

Over the week ended April 18, 30 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 21 had at least one sell signal. This remains typical of a consolidation phase with no sign of a strong push in either direction.

The signals anticipate swings of 3-5 weeks. But when a market or sector is rangebound, there are lots of whipsaw signals. This is why it’s necessary to look at the charts for the overall pattern.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal over the prior 5 day period, for repeat buy signals on over the past two trading days. There were only 5. There were 3 repeat sell signals. Again, these are small numbers reflecting a sector going nowhere.

I looked at the charts of the 5 repeat buy signals. Again I was not enamored with what I saw. Too many charts looked like intermediate term tops, just like the week before. At best it looks like more ping pong ahead. I feel like giving up on the sector. Perhaps that’s a bullish sign. But until the charts give me something more concrete to go on, this week at least, I’m sitting tight and doing nada.

One existing pick hit its stop last week and I’m dropping another as of the opening price this morning. That will leave just one pick on the list this week. One pick hit its trailing stop last week. As of yesterday, including both closeouts and the remaining open pick, last week’s 3 picks had an average gain was 3.4% on an average holding period of 9 calendar days. 8 picks were closed out in March. The average gain was 10.8% on an average holding period of 27 days. Two picks have been closed out in April so far.

Since November, after tweaking the screening methodology to use multiple days in making selections, 25 picks have been added and closed out. The average gain was 6.8% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses. See disclaimer below the charts.

Table and charts below (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you. Past performance does not imply future results. 

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Gold’s Last Chance Before Summer Vacation – LINK CORRECTED

My apologies! I sent this out earlier this week with a link to the previous weekly report. Now corrected. 

Happy Easter and Happy Passover!

A 13 week cycle upturn is ideally due xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) couple of weeks. It’s the best shot at a rally to test that March high before the 9-12 month cycle goes into its usual second half hiatus. The 10-12 month cycle projection of xxxx may still be reached (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

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A weekly close below xxxx (non-subscribers, click here for instant access) would invalidate the implications of the breakout.

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

Swing Trade Screen Picks -Over the week ended April 11, 39 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 36 had at least one sell signal. I’d liken that to a close game of ping pong. It remains typical of a consolidation phase.

The signals anticipate swings of 3-5 weeks. But when a market or sector is rangebound, there are lots of whipsaw signals. This is why it’s necessary to look at the charts for the overall pattern.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal over the prior 5 day period, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 17. There were 8 repeat sell signals.

Looking at the charts of the 17 repeat buy signals, I was underwhelmed. Too many charts looked like intermediate term tops. At best it looks like more ping pong ahead. But just in case that’s wrong and a breakout is coming, I picked two to add to the list this week to keep a few toes in the water. They were xxxxxx xxxxxxx XXX and XXX.

That will leave 3 picks on the list this week. One pick hit its trailing stop last week. Including that and the one new pick, the average gain was 3.9% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. 8 picks were closed out in March. The average gain was 10.8% on an average holding period of 27 days.

Since November, after tweaking the screening methodology to use multiple days in making selections, 23 picks have been made and closed out. The average theoretical gain was 7.3% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses.

Table and charts below (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you. Past performance does not imply future results. 

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Gold’s Last Chance Before Summer Vacation

A 13 week cycle upturn is ideally due xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) couple of weeks. It’s the best shot at a rally to test that March high before the 9-12 month cycle goes into its usual second half hiatus. The 10-12 month cycle projection of xxxx may still be reached (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

A weekly close below xxxx (non-subscribers, click here for instant access) would invalidate the implications of the breakout.

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

Swing Trade Screen Picks -Over the week ended April 11, 39 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 36 had at least one sell signal. I’d liken that to a close game of ping pong. It remains typical of a consolidation phase.

The signals anticipate swings of 3-5 weeks. But when a market or sector is rangebound, there are lots of whipsaw signals. This is why it’s necessary to look at the charts for the overall pattern.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal over the prior 5 day period, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 17. There were 8 repeat sell signals.

Looking at the charts of the 17 repeat buy signals, I was underwhelmed. Too many charts looked like intermediate term tops. At best it looks like more ping pong ahead. But just in case that’s wrong and a breakout is coming, I picked two to add to the list this week to keep a few toes in the water. They were xxxxxx xxxxxxx XXX and XXX.

That will leave 3 picks on the list this week. One pick hit its trailing stop last week. Including that and the one new pick, the average gain was 3.9% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. 8 picks were closed out in March. The average gain was 10.8% on an average holding period of 27 days.

Since November, after tweaking the screening methodology to use multiple days in making selections, 23 picks have been made and closed out. The average theoretical gain was 7.3% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses.

Table and charts below (non-subscribers, click here for instant access).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you. Past performance does not imply future results. 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The Iron Pyrite Trade

Gold has lost its shine, and it looks to be dull for a while. The 10-12 month cycle projection of xxxx(subscriber version) has been hit. Another attempt to reach that level may or may not lie ahead over the next two months, but it is unlikely to be topped for many months to come. In the near term, opposed cycles are likely to lead to more xxxx xxxx xxxx.

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A weekly close below xxxx (subscriber version) would invalidate the implications of the breakout.

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

Swing Trade Screen Picks -Over the week ended April 4, 42 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 20 had at least one sell signal. So there were several whipsaw charts with signals on both sides. This is typical of a consolidation phase.

The signals anticipate swings of 3-5 weeks. But when a market or sector is rangebound, there are lots of whipsaw signals. This is why it’s necessary to look at the charts for the overall pattern.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal over the first 4 days of the period, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 29. There were 9 repeat sell signals. Overall that’s bullish for the short term outlook for the group.

However, when I looked at the charts, I was disappointed. While there were plenty of short term buy signals, the intermediate term cycle structures weren’t great. In fact, they were troubling. Try as I might, I only found one chart that liked enough to add to the list. That goes along with the one that wasn’t stopped out last week, to leave us with only two long picks. If the sector takes off, we’ll have a toe in the water, but not a full load. On the other hand, if it tanks, we won’t get hurt.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

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Gold Can’t Hold

Short term and 13 week cycle projections point to a low around xxxx (subscriber version).  . Short term cycle lows are xxxx . The 13 week cycle low is ideally due at any time between xxxx xxxx xxxx.

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A weekly close below xxxx (subscriber version) would invalidate the implications of the breakout.

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Over the 6 trading days ended March 28, 39 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 34 had at least one sell signal. So there were plenty of whipsaws. This is typical of a consolidation phase. The signals anticipate swings of 3-5 weeks.  But when a market or sector is rangebound, there are lots of whipsaw signals. This is why it’s necessary to look at the charts for the overall pattern.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal over the first 5 days of the period, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 20.  There were 13 repeat sell signals. Overall that bodes well for holding the current long picks. However, when I reviewed the 20 buys, the structures were poor. I didn’t like any of them enough to add to the list. It was not encouraging for the broad view.

There’s a dynamic tension here that’s familiar to those of us who have watched markets for a long time. Rarely are the charts cut and dried. “We pays our money and takes our chances.”

Likewise the picks from last week are not off to a good start. I’ve added stops, and now it’s holdin’ and hopin’ time. There are only 3 picks, and if they hit their stops, the losses will be modest.

3/14/22: I would expect a consolidation or correction and would be less aggressive about adding buys to the list for the next couple of weeks.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Give It To Me One More Time, Goldie

Short term and intermediate cycles are in gear to the downside, but the 9-12 month cycle remains due for one more upleg to a new high of xxxx by xxxx xxxx  (subscriber version).

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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

In the miners, over the  week ended March 18, 14 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 42 had at least one sell signal, which means that some whipsawed. These are for swings of 3-5 weeks.

This was the second consecutive week with a majority of sell signals, indicating that the corrective phase that we expected is still under way.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal between Monday and Thursday, for repeat buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 3. Call me crazy, but I liked all 3 charts enough to put them on the list. They are shown on the table below (subscriber version)..

Over the past week, we started with 2 open selections. They hit their trailing stops and were closed as of that price. The  average gain was 13% with an average holding period of 38 calendar days.  Over the past 3 months including these two, there were 12 picks. 10 were closed with a theoretical profit. Overall, the average profit of the 12 picks was 8.9% with an average holding period of 27 calendar days.

Wouldn’t it be nice if we could annualize that? But we can’t. Our picks are buy side only, and the market often goes months without giving any buys. So it’s difficult to produce consistent profits.

So this week we start anew with 3 picks. No stop prices in the first week. We pays our money and takes our chances, at least at the outset.  Table and charts below (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Gold Holdings Consolidated

Short term cycles have entered down phases and cycles up to 17 weeks are due for a down phase. A consolidation is due before a likely higher high around a projection of xxxx (subscriber version)

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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

In the miners, short term cycles weakened but remained with the two longer cycles on the plus side. The 13 week and 6 month cycles are still near maximum strength. In past bull phases such conditions have lasted for weeks at times. Normally, negative divergences in these numbers would precede price peak in the sector. The weakening short term numbers suggest xxxx a xxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx (subscriber version).

Over the  week ended March 11, 27 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 40 had at least one sell signal, which means that many swung both ways. These are for swings of 3-5 weeks.

The plurality of sell signals suggests that the rally has run out of steam and needs a rest. I would expect a consolidation or correction and would be less aggressive about adding buys to the list for the next couple of weeks.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from the first part of the week, for repeat buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There was only one, and I wasn’t interested. I added no new picks this week, given the increase in sell signals, plus the additional reason I noted last week. It’s time to step aside.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

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Gold Breaks Out of Massive Long Term High Base, Miners Surge

Short term cycles have extended through expected peaks, thanks to the extraordinary circumstances. Projections on the 13/17 week and 9/12 month cycles  have risen and now point to xxxx  to xxxx (subscriber version) up from 2000 last week. We are in the window for highs to form on those cycles. However, given the extraordinary circumstances, I would not assume an end to the spike until we see technical evidence of it, such as trendline breaks and downturns in momentum indicators.

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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

The correction has ended in the mining stocks. Short term cycles rejoined the two longer cycles on the plus side. The 13 week and 6 month cycles are near maximum strength. In bull markets this is not a sign of an overextended trend.  In past bull phases such conditions have lasted for weeks at times. Normally, negative divergences in these numbers would precede price peak in the sector.

Over the  week ended March 7, 46 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 30 had at least one sell signal, which means that a few swung both ways. It’s like that.

These are for swings of 3-5 weeks. For the prior two weeks there were a plurality of sell signals. The corrective phase ended with a bang last week.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from last Tuesday through the week, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 34, which is extraordinary. I inspected those charts looking for good entry setups for picks to add to the list this week.

Most had risen to, or just below major resistance. While the trends are all bullish, these are not low risk short term entry points. Then the question was whether to take a shot on a laggard or two. While these are extraordinary circumstances, my answer there was, again, to stick with the discipline. So I’m adding no new picks this week.

Over the past week there were 6 open selections. All had gains. The average gain was 21% with an average holding period of 31 calendar days. That’s up from 8.7% and average holding period of 24 calendar days the week before.

I’ve adjusted stops on all open picks. Table and charts below (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead

Gold and the miners are consolidating for more gains. Longer cycle projections range from xxxx  to xxxx (subscriber version).

Over the week ended February 28, 24 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 46 had at least one sell signal. These are for swings of 3-5 weeks, so it merely suggests a short term correction for most stocks in the sector. Last week’s signals had also suggested a short term correction.

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So far, that’s how it looks. A screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Monday had 9 buy signals and 10 sells, which again suggests consolidation and range trading for the sector.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from last Tuesday through the week, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 4. I inspected those charts but did not feel that their setups were propitious for entry now.

Two picks on the list last week hit their stops and were closed. That will leave us with 6 open selections. All had gains. Including currently open picks and those closed last week the average gain was 8.7% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s up from 6.9% and average holding period of 19 calendar days the week before.

I’ve adjusted stops on all remaining picks. Charts below (subscriber version)..

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

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